France declares state of emergency by...?
10%December 31
- October 211%
- October 312%
- December 3110%▲ 1
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Will any country leave NATO by...?
The odds
5%December 31, 2026
- December 31, 20265%
How the odds have moved
December 31, 2026: 5% on Oct 20, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | <1% | 0¢ | $277K | |||
| June 30, 2026 | <1% | 0¢ | $741K | |||
| December 31, 2026 | 5% | 3¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | $411K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NATO
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Russian Drones And Missiles Threaten NATO Energy Infrastructure.Lessons Russia has learned during its long attempt to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure may be turned against NATO. NATO is unprepared. Russian Drones And Missiles Threaten NATO Energy Infrastructure. Russia’s drone-and-missile… -
U.S. Army and NATO Partners Rehearse War StrategiesWiesbaden, Germany — Approximately 150 military personnel from various countries gather in the Command Operations and Information Center (COIC), where they practice responding to a scenario involving a possible attack on the North Atlantic… -
Germany’s Defense Shift: Merz, NATO, And Rearmament – AnalysisBy Dr. Emily Holland (FPRI) — When newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz delivered his first major address to the Bundestag in May 2025, following a closely fought election that ultimately saw Merz’s CDU (Christian Democratic… -
Beyond NATO? Turkey’s New Defense Partnerships Reshape Eurasian GeopoliticsTurkey’s latest defense agreement with Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia could reshape military cooperation across Eurasia. On October 21, 2026, Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia signed the Badr Memorandum of Understanding in Doha. It has… -
Russia May Seek NATO Rollback to 1997 in Ukraine TalksRussia may use renewed peace talks on Ukraine to seek concessions that weaken NATO’s defenses in Europe, The Telegraph reported on Sunday, Oct. 25, citing diplomatic sources. The sources said Moscow’s push to include European countries in… -
Lithuania's Šiauliai air base expansion to accommodate up to 750 NATO troopsLithuania's expansion of its air force base in Šiauliai will allow it to accommodate 500 to 750 NATO troops “on a rotational basis”, the Defence Ministry said on Monday. South Korean firm signs air defence deals with four Lithuanian… -
U.S. Pullback From NATO Could Trigger Russia’s Use Of Nuclear WeaponsIf the U.S. pulls back from NATO even as Moscow escalates its shadow war against the European democracies, that could dramatically increase the chances that Vladimir Putin unleashes the first atomic attacks of the 21st century to reconquer… -
Zelensky announces security meeting in Brussels with U.S., Ukrainian, EU and NATO representativesPresident Volodymyr Zelensky announced this in an interview with TSN.Tyzhden, according to a Ukrinform correspondent. Now, having received information from Witkofff about his talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg, the… -
COP31 Host Urges NATO Nations to Spend More on Climate Than DefenseU.S. Dips Into Strategic Oil Reserve Again Amid Supply Disruptions The UK government has re-approved… Soaring oil tanker rates are… Trump and Carney have traded… COP31 will be held in the southern Turkish province of Antalya from 9th –… -
Russia to demand reduction of NATO presence in Europe during peace talks – The TelegraphДолучайтеся до клубу УП! The Telegraph, citing informed sources in diplomatic circles, has written that Russia may attempt to use a new round of peace talks regarding the Russia-Ukraine war to secure concessions from NATO. Source: European… -
NATO Must Abandon 'Containment' of Russia to Resume Dialogue - Russian Foreign MinistryMOSCOW (Sputnik) - Dialogue with NATO cannot be revived as long as the alliance persists in its policy of "containing" Russia, Natalia Fuzhenkova, deputy head of the Russian delegation and Russia's deputy permanent representative to the UN… -
Ukraine should abandon eastern regions, and bid to join NATO for sake of peace — TimesLONDON, October 26. /TASS/. To end the conflict with Russia, Ukraine must compromise and give up the territories inhabited by Russian-speaking peoples as well as its aspiration to join NATO, said Matthew Parris, a columnist for The Times…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions