Bitcoin above ___ on October 24?
$79,000median
$70,000$94,000
Median $79,000Middle half $78,499 – $79,501
Install
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?
The odds
50%↓ $2.5
- Reaches $627%
- Reaches $811%
- Reaches $107%
- Reaches $123%
- Reaches $153%
- Reaches $203%
- Falls to $2.5050%
- Falls to $220%
Already reached: ↓ $3, ↑ $4, ↓ $2, ↓ $1.5, ↓ $1, ↑ $3
How the odds have moved
Falls to $2: 27% on Oct 20, 20% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETFalls to $2: 25% → 14%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ↑ $3 | >99% | ▲ 23 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $77.6K | |
| ✓ ↑ $4 | >99% | ▲ 23 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $151K | |
| ↑ $6 | 27% | ▲ 1 | 23¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | $88.2K |
| ↑ $8 | 11% | 9¢ | 12¢ | $8.20 | $107K | |
| ↑ $10 | 7% | 6¢ | 8¢ | $12.99 | $15K | |
| ↑ $12 | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $22.73 | $7.7K | |
| ↑ $15 | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $23.81 | $977 | |
| ↑ $20 | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $24.39 | $503 | |
| ✓ ↓ $1 | >99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | ||
| ✓ ↓ $1.5 | >99% | ▲ 14 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $169K | |
| ↓ $2 | 20% | ▲ 5 | 12¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | $1.2K |
| ✓ ↓ $2 | >99% | ▲ 18 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $128K | |
| ↓ $2.5 | 50% | ▲ 2 | 49¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | $4.4K |
| ✓ ↓ $3 | >99% | ▲ 25 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Lighter
Search ›-
Should we switch time zones for lighter evenings?With the clocks going back one hour on Sunday, people are discussing whether the British Isles should change time zones to allow for lighter evenings. A former politician who spearheaded a referendum for Jersey to adopt Central European… -
🪶 DevRelief — Make Work Feel LighterThis is a submission for the Hacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge Week 3: Slow and Steady Developers spend too much time summarizing Git activity, investigating CI failures, preparing release notes, converting rough requirements into… -
Testing of accused Palisades fire starter’s lighter will be key evidence in second trial, lawyer saysA lighter found in the car of the man accused of sparking the deadly Palisades Fire will be “front and center” at his second federal trial — after it was revealed that extensive testing was conducted on the igniter prosecutors say started… -
Lighter (LIT) 23 Hour Move: Platform Growth and Derivatives ImpactThe recent 23 hour move in Lighter (LIT) is best explained by a combination of platform specific growth news and a broader derivatives led risk off move in crypto. Together, those developments give traders a reason to treat LIT as a… -
Hands-on: Belkin’s new semi solid state batteries make for a much lighter carryBelkin is now offering two new semi solid state batteries for your iPhone. There’s one 10,000mAh offering with a USB-C port for charging. The second is a 5,000mAh MagSafe offering, which offers 15W Qi2 charging. Both come in much lighter… - Lighter crypto dips 11% – Will $2.2M buybacks spark LIT’s rebound?Lighter [LIT], the native token of the decentralized perpetual exchange, has continued to decline in the early hours of the 24th of October, falling roughly 11% as of writing. The decline comes at a stage where traders in the market…
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Man with pistol-shaped lighter arrested in West HollywoodA man carrying a lighter that resembled a gun was arrested following a brief standoff with officers in West Hollywood, the Los Angeles Police Department said. The LAPD said it learned about the suspect after a bystander, a retired police… -
I let an open model delete 1,242 of my saved articles. On purpose. I feel lighter.This is a submission for the Hacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge Week 3: Slow and Steady I had 1,247 articles saved "for later." This week I let a model on my laptop throw almost all of them away, and I have never felt lighter. Let me… - Lighter (LIT) token price drops 1.6% to $3.21 in 24 hours ending Oct 24Lighter (LIT) token price drops 1.6% to $3.21 i... Pluang The cryptocurrency Lighter (LIT) traded at $3.21 as of 5:06 p.m ET on Saturday, marking a 1.6% decrease over the previous 24 hours ending on October 24 This decline reflects recent…
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NEURA’s 20% lighter humanoid robot with touch and force sensing moves toward productionThe robot features precise-gripping hands and Smart Limbs that respond independently, enabling faster reactions and smoother movement. NEURA Robotics has unveiled 4NE1 Gen 4, a humanoid robot designed for serial production that is 20… -
Akedo Jumps 40.37% as Lighter Slides 11.11% in Split MovesAkedo rose 40.37% to $0.0320, topping the 24-hour gainers chart, according to CoinGecko data. Its market capitalization stood at $729.08M. The biggest move on the losing side was Lighter’s 11.11% decline to $3.43, leaving the two leading… -
Dillon Danis looks depleted as he weighs in for Arman Tsarukyan clash 30 pounds lighter than last boutIt looks like Dillon Danis has battled through a tough weight cut ahead of his RAF grudge match. While Danis is set to face Colby Covington next month, the controversial star has another big matchup on his hands tomorrow night. It was of…
Related markets
All crypto ›What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
$83,914high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $83,914 and as low as $77,664.
- Reaches $82,50091%
- Reaches $85,00019%
- Falls to $80,000>99%
- Falls to $77,50047%
Already reached: ↑ 85,000, ↓ 82,500, ↓ 80,000, ↓ 85,000, ↑ 85,000, ↓ 85,000
Bitcoin above ___ on October 25?
$81,000median
$70,000$94,000
Median $81,000Middle half $80,499 – $81,501
What price will Bitcoin hit October 19-25?
<1%↑ 96,000
- Reaches $82,000<1%
- Reaches $84,000<1%
- Falls to $78,000<1%
- Falls to $76,000<1%
Already reached: ↑ 84,000, ↓ 80,000, ↓ 82,000, ↓ 82,000, ↓ 84,000, ↑ 82,000
What price will Bitcoin hit on October 25?
<1%↑ 88,000
- Reaches $81,000<1%
- Reaches $82,000<1%
- Falls to $79,000<1%
- Falls to $78,000<1%
Already reached: ↓ 80,000
Bitcoin above ___ on October 26?
$80,212median
$70,000$94,000
Median $80,212Middle half $79,027 – $81,175
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions