Total commitments for the 1win ($1w) public sale

Polymarket Crypto Closes Nov 2 · $50.4K today · $342K traded · $39.5K at stake · prices read 6 min ago

The odds

$30.36Mmedian

$5M$80M

Median $30.36M

How the odds have moved

Median: $46.38M on Oct 20, $30.36M now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
$10M	90%	▼ 4	89¢	91¢	$1.10	$96.4K
$15M	80%	▼ 1	79¢	81¢	$1.23	$56.3K
$20M	67%	▼ 4	64¢	70¢	$1.43	$37.8K
$30M	51%	▼ 3	50¢	51¢	$1.96	$37.3K
$40M	37%	▼ 9	36¢	37¢	$2.70	$41.7K
$60M	29%		27¢	31¢	$3.23	$72.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All crypto ›

Crypto › Bitcoin

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

$83,876high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $83,876 and as low as $77,748.

Reaches $82,50091%
Reaches $85,00017%

Falls to $80,000>99%
Falls to $77,50045%

Already reached: ↑ 85,000, ↓ 82,500, ↓ 80,000, ↓ 85,000, ↑ 85,000, ↓ 85,000

Crypto › Bitcoin

Bitcoin above ___ on October 25?

$81,000median

$70,000$94,000

Median $81,000Middle half $80,499 – $81,501

Crypto › Bitcoin

What price will Bitcoin hit October 19-25?

<1%↑ 96,000

Reaches $82,000<1%
Reaches $84,000<1%

Falls to $78,000<1%
Falls to $76,000<1%

Already reached: ↑ 84,000, ↓ 80,000, ↓ 82,000, ↓ 82,000, ↓ 84,000, ↑ 82,000

Crypto › Bitcoin

What price will Bitcoin hit on October 25?

<1%↑ 88,000

Reaches $81,000<1%
Reaches $82,000<1%

Falls to $79,000<1%
Falls to $78,000<1%

Already reached: ↓ 80,000

Crypto › Bitcoin

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

42%↑ 90,000

Reaches $90,00042%
Reaches $95,00025%

Falls to $70,00041%
Falls to $65,00024%

Already reached: ↓ 60,000, ↑ 85,000, ↑ 80,000, ↑ 75,000, ↑ 70,000, ↑ 65,000

Crypto › Ethereum

What price will Ethereum hit October 19-25?

$2,546high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2,546 and as low as $2,250.

Reaches $2,50093%
Reaches $2,600<1%

Falls to $2,300>99%
Falls to $2,200<1%

Already reached: ↓ 2,400

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles on1wtoken.com

Trading closesNov 2, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$342K

Today$50.4K

This week$256K

At stake$39.5K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the headline pool total displayed on the official 1W Token Sale page at https://1wtoken.com/ (the "US$[amount] of US$[allocation]" figure). Total commitments refers to this gross pool amount, including any oversubscription above the sale's allocation, and not the final allocated amount after excess deposits are refunded. If the sale page displays only a net or allocated figure rather than the gross pool amount, official announcements of the gros

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions