Talarico Texas Senate odds hit __ by November 2?

Polymarket Elections › President 2028 Closes Nov 2 · $315 today · $15.6K traded · $4K at stake · prices read 22 min ago

The odds

41%↑ 70%
  • Reaches 70%41%
  • Reaches 75%19%
  • Reaches 80%14%

How the odds have moved

Reaches 70%: 23% on Oct 20, 41% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 24, 11 PM ETReaches 70%: 30% → 45%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 21, 7 PM ETReaches 70%: 27% → 33%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
↑ 70% 41% ▼ 18 13¢ 69¢ $1.45 $6.4K
↑ 75% 19% ▲ 1 18¢ 20¢ $5.00 $6.8K
↑ 80% 14% ▲ 1 12¢ 16¢ $6.25 $2.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Talarico Texas Senate

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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