María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
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Trump approval rating on October 23?
The last odds before it closed
38.7median
37.139.9
Median 38.7Middle half 38.6 – 38.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 38.7 on Oct 20, 38.7 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <37.5 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.2K | |||
| 37.5–37.9 | <1% | 0¢ | $2.3K | |||
| 38.0–38.4 | <1% | ▼ 24 | 0¢ | $4K | ||
| 38.5–38.9 | >99% | ▲ 30 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $5.3K | |
| 39.0–39.4 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $4.3K | ||
| 39.5+ | <1% | 0¢ | $1.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
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Trump Administration News: Headlines and Video on Trump OfficialsNBC News The latest on the 47th presidential administration. Ceasefire brokered by Melania Trump goes into effect in Russian-occupied town ‘on the brink of disaster’ DOJ asks Washington state to set aside 400 ballots from voters it says… -
Trump administration pushes for Venezuela electionsThe Trump administration is working with Venezuela to set up a path toward elections, according to a senior State Department official. The blueprint would see a new Supreme Court, or TSJ, put into place by mid-December of this year… -
Cuba holds on as Trump ups pressureFrom the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy. By ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL and GISELLE RUHIYYIH EWING 10/26/2026 04:07 PM EDT Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez gives a news conference… -
Trump campaigns in Mississippi, highlighting Republicans' challengesBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. President Donald Trump… -
Donald Trump's biggest economic problem looks strangely familiarThe White House is confronting a familiar dilemma. The economic numbers aren't necessarily bad - but the public mood is. It's a disconnect that haunted Joe Biden in 2024, when solid headline data failed to convince many voters that the… -
Trump, Obama hold rallies ahead of midtermsPresident Trump is holding several rallies, including in deep-red states, in the week before the midterm as he tries to keep his party in control of Congress. Former President Barack Obama is also headlining events, hoping to help flip… -
Nikola founder Trevor Milton receives full pardon from President TrumpUpdated on: March 28, 2025 / 10:42 AM EDT / CBS News Nikola founder Trevor Milton said in a social media post that he's received "a full and unconditional pardon" by President Trump, adding that the president called him personally to… -
Trump Repeatedly Calls Out Daylight Saving Delay Before Clock ChangeOct 27, 2026 at 04:08 AM EDT Oct 27, 2026 at 04:22 AM EDT President Donald Trump has renewed his calls for the Senate to make daylight saving time permanent, warning lawmakers that they only have days to act before clocks go back across… -
Texas GOP candidate says NFL stars will 'boost' Trump's campaigningTexas House candidate Eric Flores reacts to former NFL stars joining President Trump's campaigning, the Senate race between Paxton and Talarico and his race to unseat a five-time Democrat incumbent. Texas GOP candidate says NFL stars will… -
Gutfeld: Trump won’t be in the White House foreverFox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’ panel analyze recent insults from former President Barack Obama against President Donald Trump. Gutfeld: Trump won’t be in the White House forever Fox News host Greg Gutfeld and the ‘Gutfeld!’… -
Kathy Hochul on Trump, Mamdani and the Future of New YorkIn a wide-ranging interview, New York’s governor discusses her next steps and the forces reshaping her state and party. Jonathan Martin is POLITICO’s senior political columnist and politics bureau chief. He’s covered elections in every… -
Local ceasefire brokered by Melania Trump starts in southern UkraineIn this undated image from video provided by the Ukrainian 34th Separate Marine Brigade "Borysfen" on Sept. 22, 2026, smoke rises from a residential neighborhood in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky in the Kherson region of Ukraine…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions