Which party will win the House in 2026?
92%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party92%
- Republican Party8%
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AP calls the House by...?
The odds
95%November 30, 11:59 PM
- November 30, 11:59 PM95%▼ 1
- November 15, 11:59 PM94%▼ 4
- November 5, 11:59 PM89%▼ 2
- November 6, 11:59 PM88%▼ 8
- November 4, 11:59 PM84%▼ 4
- November 3, 11:59 PM41%▼ 4
How the odds have moved
November 30, 11:59 PM: 97% on Oct 20, 95% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30, 11:59 PM | 95% | ▼ 1 | 93¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | $3.5K |
| November 15, 11:59 PM | 94% | ▼ 4 | 90¢ | 98¢ | $1.03 | $1.3K |
| November 5, 11:59 PM | 89% | ▼ 2 | 87¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | $3.1K |
| November 6, 11:59 PM | 88% | ▼ 8 | 81¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | $2.3K |
| November 4, 11:59 PM | 84% | ▼ 4 | 81¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | $3.9K |
| November 3, 11:59 PM | 41% | ▼ 4 | 34¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | $1.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House
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Obama MOCKS Trump's White House renovationsFormer President Barack Obama mocked President Donald Trump's White House renovations during a campaign rally for Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. Obama MOCKS Trump's White House renovations Former President Barack Obama mocked President Donald… -
Lula’s win is a blow for the Trump White HouseLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s reelection could reshape geopolitics for years to come. Challenger Flávio Bolsonaro vowed to pursue closer ties with the Trump administration if elected and had looked set to confirm a regional conservative… -
White House official addresses inflation and tariff concernsNational Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett joins 'The Sunday Briefing' to discuss the impact of the administration's economic policies, inflation and tariffs. White House official addresses inflation and tariff concerns National… -
Catholic Bishops Say White House Exploited Prayer With TrumpOct 26, 2026 at 03:56 AM EDT Two Catholic bishops have accused the White House of taking advantage of a meeting and prayer with U.S. President Donald Trump, saying the moment was "exploited" or "manipulated" less than two weeks before the… -
Michael Knowles defends archbishop's White House prayer with Trump'Michael Knowles Show' host Michael Knowles joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to react to Denver Archbishop James Golka defending his prayer with President Donald Trump and also weighs in on the far-left riots spreading across Europe. Michael… -
Jeffries: Democrats "on the verge of taking back control" of the HouseCNN's Manu Raju hits the campaign trail in California with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who could be just months away from becoming the first Black speaker of the House of Representatives. While confident, Jeffries is also… -
White House official quips Nicki Minaj could be new press secretaryWhite House communications director Steven Cheung posted a video of himself and rapper Nicki Minaj chatting on Air Force One, with captions saying they “may have found” the new White House press secretary. They were both on their way to a… -
Trump Unloads on Bill Maher in 1,300-Word Post After White House DinnerOct 25, 2026 at 10:07 PM EDT President Donald Trump launched a lengthy attack on comedian Bill Maher on Sunday, calling him a “complete and total loser” in a Truth Social post and telling him not to seek another meeting after previously… -
Milwaukee archbishop apologizes for White House visit, says it was manipulatedMilwaukee Archbishop Jeffrey Grob is apologizing after appearing in a video with other Catholic leaders praying over President Donald Trump at the White House, which Grob says the Trump administration released without the bishops' consent… -
California abortion rights advocate sweats Biden drag on House racesJodi Hicks, president of Planned Parenthood California, indicated Democrats were taking a big risk in losing the House if they stuck with President Joe Biden. Jodi Hicks, an ally of the vice president and a major player in the capital city… -
Trump Renews Talks of Pardoning White House StaffOct 24, 2026 at 06:55 PM EDT President Donald Trump left the door open to pardons for White House staff and administration officials, telling reporters on Saturday that he would be "allowed" to grant them despite insisting he has not given… -
White House takes new actions ahead of midterm electionsNBC News Catastrophic flooding prompts rescues Good News: Unlikely friendship leads to trip of a lifetime White House takes new actions ahead of midterm elections All-out fight for critical battleground states ramps up Inside the battle…
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All president 2028 ›Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
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- Democrats Sweep65%▼ 1
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- Republicans Sweep7%
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- Josh Shapiro3%
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- Rand Paul<1%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
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- Joe Kent<1%
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56%Nithya Raman
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17%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
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- Andy Beshear3%
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- Wes Moore2%
- Rahm Emanuel2%
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- Jon Stewart1%
- Gretchen Whitmer1%
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- Chris Murphy<1%
- Ruben Gallego<1%
- Mark Cuban<1%
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- Hunter Biden<1%
- Stephen A. Smith<1%
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- Jared Polis<1%
- Phil Murphy<1%
- Jasmine Crockett<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Chris Van Hollen<1%
- Mitch Landrieu<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- John Fetterman<1%
- Liz Cheney<1%
- George Clooney<1%
- MrBeast<1%
- Oprah Winfrey<1%
- Andrew Yang<1%
- Beto O’Rourke<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Graham Platner<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions