Predictions › Elections › Around the world Morena 71% ▲ 3 PRI 12% ▼ 1 PT 8% PVEM 1% PAN 1% MC <1%
Morena: 73% on Oct 20, 71% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
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Student List – Students Win >99% ▲ 73 Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia <1% ▼ 74 Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! <1% 7 more Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) <1% Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor <1% Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification <1% Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić <1% Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović <1% European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš <1% SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak <1% Lula da Silva <4% >99% ▲ 82 Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ <1% ▼ 1 Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% <1% ▼ 5 5 more Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% <1% ▼ 36 Flávio Bolsonaro <4% <1% ▼ 38 Lula da Silva 4-8% <1% ▼ 1 Lula da Silva 8-12% <1% Lula da Silva 12%+ <1% Yashar 69% Likud 30% Together 1% 3 more Shas <1% The Democrats <1% Otzma Yehudit <1% Marine Le Pen 44% Édouard Philippe 18% ▲ 3 David Lisnard 14% 42 more Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10% Raphaël Glucksmann 3% ▼ 1 François Hollande 3% Bruno Retailleau 1% Éric Zemmour 1% Jordan Bardella 1% Gabriel Attal 1% Dominique de Villepin 1% Sarah Knafo 1% Christine Lagarde <1% Xavier Bertrand <1% François Ruffin <1% Ségolène Royal <1% François Asselineau <1% Jean Castex <1% Sébastien Lecornu <1% Marion Maréchal <1% Natacha Polony <1% Laurent Wauquiez <1% Marine Tondelier <1% Fabien Roussel <1% Olivier Faure <1% Clémentine Autain <1% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan <1% Michel Barnier <1% Valérie Pécresse <1% François Bayrou <1% Élisabeth Borne <1% Yaël Braun-Pivet <1% Gérald Darmanin <1% Carole Delga <1% Bernard Cazeneuve <1% Manuel Bompard <1% Mathilde Panot <1% Juan Branco <1% Clémence Guetté <1% Karim Bouamrane <1% Lucie Castets <1% Yannick Jadot <1% François Baroin <1% Anasse Kazib <1% Sylvain Durif <1% Iliana Iotova 70% ▲ 6 Аndrey Gyurov 28% ▼ 7 Nikolai Denkov <1% 11 more Blagomir Kotsev <1% Rosen Zhelyazkov <1% Kostadin Kostadinov <1% Natalia Kiselova <1% Yanaki Stoilov <1% Krum Zarkov <1% Atanas Atanasov <1% Boyko Borissov <1% Delyan Peevski <1% Vassil Terziev <1% Rosen Plevneliev <1% Ilija Srdanović 20% ▼ 6 Vladan Đokić 2% ▲ 2 Aleksandar Vučić 1% 7 more Ana Brnabić <1% Ivica Dačić <1% Miloš Vučević <1% Đuro Macut <1% Stefan Krkobabić <1% Branimir Jovanović <1% Dragan Đilas <1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Trading closes Jun 6, 2027 11:59 PM ET
Traded $7.1K
This week $330
At stake $1.6K
Followed here since Oct 19, 2026
The rules Legislative elections to elect the 25 members of the Congress of the State of Tlaxcala are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Tlaxcala as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This marke
The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket .
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use . How to use Predictions
