Next Premier of New South Wales

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Mar 27, 2027 · $544 today · $9.7K traded · $1.5K at stake · prices read 10 min ago

The odds

56%Chris Minns
  • Chris Minns56%▲ 11
  • Mark Speakman15%▲ 5
  • Rose Jackson13%▼ 4
  • Kellie Sloane11%▼ 4
  • Ryan Park3%▲ 2
  • Gurmesh Singh3%▼ 1
  • Daniel Mookhey1%▼ 1
  • Prue Car1%
  • Mike Newman1%
  • Alister Henskens<1%
  • Penny Sharpe<1%

How the odds have moved

Chris Minns: 54% on Oct 20, 56% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 23, 9 PM ETChris Minns: 50% → 59%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Chris Minns 56% ▲ 11 56¢ 68¢ $1.47 $3.5K
Mark Speakman 15% ▲ 5 12¢ 25¢ $3.97 $1.1K
Rose Jackson 13% ▼ 4 10¢ 21¢ $4.67 $939
Kellie Sloane 11% ▼ 4 9¢ 19¢ $5.26 $2.1K
Ryan Park 3% ▲ 2 1¢ 7¢ $14.08 $347
Gurmesh Singh 3% ▼ 1 0¢ 6¢ $16.67 $394
Daniel Mookhey 1% ▼ 1 0¢ 3¢ $37.04 $287
Prue Car 1% 0¢ 3¢ $35.71 $240
Mike Newman 1% 0¢ 2¢ $58.82 $262
Alister Henskens <1% 0¢ 1¢ $233
Penny Sharpe <1% 0¢ 0¢ $233

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Premier of New South Wales, Chris Minns, Mark Speakman

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions