Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Polymarket Elections › Around the world For Sun 11:59 PM ET · $88.6K today · $987K traded · $48K at stake · prices read 26 h ago

The odds

>99%Lula
  • Lula>99%▲ 71
  • Flavio Bolsonaro<1%▼ 67

How the odds have moved

Lula: 34% on Oct 20, >99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 25, 11 PM ETLula: 30% → >99%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Lula >99% ▲ 71 100¢ 100¢ $335K
Flavio Bolsonaro <1% ▼ 67 0¢ $652K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Brazil Presidential Election Second, Amapá, Flavio Bolsonaro

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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