#3 AI Lab end of December? (Style Control On)

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $624 today · $30.5K traded · $2.5K at stake · prices read 28 min ago

The odds

33%Meta

Meta33%▼ 5
Anthropic22%▼ 4
Google17%▲ 1
OpenAI12%
Meituan8%▲ 4
SpaceXAI7%▲ 2
Moonshot6%
Z.ai5%
Mistral4%▲ 1
Alibaba4%
Thinky4%
StepFun4%▼ 2

9 more

Nvidia4%
DeepSeek3%▼ 1
Microsoft3%
Tencent3%▼ 1
ByteDance3%
Xiaomi3%
Baidu1%
MiniMax1%
Amazon1%

How the odds have moved

Meta: 35% on Oct 20, 33% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Meta	33%	▼ 5	31¢	34¢	$2.94	$7.5K
Anthropic	22%	▼ 4	19¢	25¢	$4.00	$7.2K
Google	17%	▲ 1	14¢	20¢	$5.03	$7.8K
OpenAI	12%		10¢	13¢	$7.46	$2.3K
Meituan	8%	▲ 4	0¢	15¢	$6.76	$371
SpaceXAI	7%	▲ 2	3¢	12¢	$8.40	$301
Moonshot	6%		4¢	7¢	$13.51	$707
Z.ai	5%		1¢	8¢	$12.50	$268
Mistral	4%	▲ 1	0¢	8¢	$13.16	$264
Alibaba	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.71	$264
Thinky	4%		0¢	8¢	$13.33	$355
StepFun	4%	▼ 2	0¢	8¢	$13.33	$268
Nvidia	4%		0¢	7¢	$14.71	$329
DeepSeek	3%	▼ 1	0¢	6¢	$15.87	$329
Microsoft	3%		0¢	6¢	$16.13	$268
Tencent	3%	▼ 1	0¢	6¢	$17.86	$308
ByteDance	3%		0¢	5¢	$20.41	$289
Xiaomi	3%		0¢	5¢	$20.83	$239
Baidu	1%		0¢	1¢	$71.43	$242
MiniMax	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$245
Amazon	1%		0¢	1¢		$728

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI Lab

Search ›

Anthropic files SEC prospectus, bringing AI lab a step closer to historic offeringCNBC · 25 h agoAnthropic is officially headed for the public market. Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox Get this delivered ... Anthropic files SEC prospectus…
Synopsys reportedly eyes Chinese AI labs to speed up chip designCrypto Briefing · 36 h agoA post on X says the chip-design software maker plans to work with Chinese AI labs, but the company has confirmed no such deals Synopsys, the electronic design automation company, reportedly plans to collaborate with Chinese AI labs to…
University of Texas athletics to use AI lab to help decision-making — with a catchNew York Post · 4 days agoThe Texas Longhorns are dipping their toe into the world of AI. Bevo Lab is a new sports intelligence platform and laboratory designed to help elevate athletic performance and expand learning opportunities for students, per UT Athletics…
Chip sector perks up after Anthropic becomes first AI lab to officially file for IPOSeeking Alpha · 41 h agoMost chip stocks were solidly in the green by afternoon trading on Monday after Anthropic ( ANT) became the first frontier AI lab to officially file for an initial public offering. Most chip stocks were solidly in the green by afternoon…
Osceola's New Tech Library Opens Near NeoCity With AI Labs, Telehealth PodsHoodline · 30 h agoOsceola County opened a first-of-its-kind Tech Library on Friday, a facility built around coding labs, robotics, esports and even private rooms where residents can log into telehealth appointments ... Explore Our Cities & Metro Areas (A-Z)…
Goldman Sachs puts $500M into small-business AI with four AI labsTNW | Artificial-intelligence · 26 h agoGoldman Sachs chief executive David Solomon said there is very little that needs frontier models. Most AI-using owners in Goldman’s survey spend under $100 a month on it. The Goldman Sachs Tower in Jersey City, New Jersey, in 2006 Goldman…
Managed IT Services Santa Clarita Makes Cybersecurity Standard Across IT Programs After AI Lab BreachesLincoln Journal · 3 days agolincolnjournal.com After Anthropic and OpenAI disclosed that AI models under testing broke into real organizationsâ systems, the Santa Clarita IT provider now includes core security protections in its break-fix, fully managed and…
One-man AI lab: IIM alumnus builds 5 open AI models in just 13 daysIndia Today · 2 days agoThere are individuals who enter technology by front door, with capital behind them and a company already waiting. Jitesh Prasad appears to have taken another road. He studied physics at the University of North Bengal and later went to IIM…
As AI Labs Burn Cash, the Real Question Is Which Suppliers Get PaidThe Motley Fool · 2 days agoMicrosoft confirmed this week that it was pulling out of a planned artificial intelligence (AI) data center project in the United Kingdom. The facility, being developed by Nscale, was supposed to provide computing power for Microsoft's…
Hardware for local AI LabsTechBullion · 4 days agoAI is insatiably thirsty for air, cooling, and power. Labs crave maximum computing power like a marathoner craves water. The heart of every AI lab is its hardware. Without the right machines humming away in the background, all the genius…
The AI Lab Invites NVIDIA, Meta, OpenAI, Google and Microsoft to use TIP, Permanent, Quantum-Safe Proof of Who Made WhatEIN Presswire · 4 days agoWith U.S. midterms days away and deepfakes on the rise, TIP pre-launched at OC Tech Week, backed by more than 15 node operators in eight countries The AI Lab Invites NVIDIA, Meta, OpenAI, Google and Microsoft to use TIP, Permanent…
Intel and FIT launch AI for Future training programme and dedicated AI LabTechCentral.ie · 4 days agoIntel and Fastrack into Information Technology (FIT) have launched the AI for Future Workforce Programme in Ireland, including the development of a dedicated AI Lab where learners can undertake practical artificial intelligence training…

Related markets

All ai ›

Tech › AI

#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)

44%Meta

Meta44%▼ 1
DeepSeek36%▲ 35
Anthropic19%

18 more

OpenAI16%
Google14%▲ 1
Moonshot3%
SpaceXAI2%
Meituan2%
Alibaba2%
Z.ai2%
Xiaomi2%
Tencent2%
Mistral1%
Amazon1%
Baidu<1%
ByteDance<1%
MiniMax<1%
Thinky<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%
Nvidia<1%

Tech › AI

#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)

63%Meta

Meta63%▲ 6
Anthropic21%▼ 13
Alibaba4%

18 more

Moonshot2%
Google2%
Z.ai1%
OpenAI1%
Thinky1%
ByteDance1%
SpaceXAI<1%
Baidu<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Tencent<1%
Xiaomi<1%
MiniMax<1%
Nvidia<1%
Microsoft<1%
Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
StepFun<1%
Mistral<1%

Tech › AI

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

56%Anthropic

Anthropic56%▲ 4
Google34%▼ 3
OpenAI6%

12 more

Meta2%
xAI1%
Alibaba1%
DeepSeek<1%
Moonshot<1%
Z.ai<1%
Mistral<1%
Microsoft<1%
ByteDance<1%
Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Baidu<1%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

89%Google

Google89%▲ 3
Anthropic9%▼ 1
Meta<1%

18 more

OpenAI<1%▼ 1
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

Nov 25, 2026even chance by

October 3116%▼ 2
November 1533%▼ 4
November 3059%▲ 3

2 more

December 1575%▼ 2
December 3180%▼ 7

Tech › AI

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Dec 12, 2027even chance by

December 31, 202615%▲ 1
December 31, 202752%▲ 2

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$30.5K

Today$624

This week$3.2K

At stake$2.5K

In the news3 headlines today, 47 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the ma

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN · about the company249.47+0.15%
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company99.67−0.58%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company77.41−0.57%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company318.07+0.40%
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company623.07−1.19%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT · about the company528.64−0.74%
NVDANVDA · about the company

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions