Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of December?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Dec 31 · $11.8K traded · $1.6K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

49%Anthropic

Anthropic49%
Google37%▲ 1
Tencent6%
OpenAI5%
Microsoft5%▼ 1
DeepSeek5%▼ 1
StepFun5%
MiniMax5%
Mistral4%
Meta4%
Moonshot4%
Z.ai1%

9 more

Meituan1%
Alibaba1%
Xiaomi1%
SpaceXAI1%
Baidu1%
Nvidia1%
Amazon1%
ByteDance1%
Thinky1%

How the odds have moved

Anthropic: 51% on Oct 20, 49% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Anthropic	49%		48¢	49¢	$2.04	$4.5K
Google	37%	▲ 1	36¢	38¢	$2.63	$3.2K
Tencent	6%		0¢	11¢	$9.35	$206
OpenAI	5%		1¢	10¢	$10.42	$234
Microsoft	5%	▼ 1	1¢	9¢	$10.87	$231
DeepSeek	5%	▼ 1	0¢	10¢	$10.10	$206
StepFun	5%		0¢	9¢	$10.64	$206
MiniMax	5%		0¢	9¢	$11.24	$224
Mistral	4%		0¢	8¢	$12.66	$227
Meta	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.29	$206
Moonshot	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.71	$206
Z.ai	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	$206
Meituan	1%		1¢	1¢	$100.00	$206
Alibaba	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$244
Xiaomi	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$206
SpaceXAI	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$206
Baidu	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$206
Nvidia	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$186
Amazon	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$206
ByteDance	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$206
Thinky	1%		0¢	1¢	$100.00	$221

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI model, artificial intelligence, Text Arena Math AI

Search ›

Anthropic sued for allegedly using 274 Elvis Presley songs to train AI modelsthe Guardian · 44 h agoAuthentic Brands Group says AI company infringed on rights of songs by the King such as Can’t Help Falling in Love Authentic Brands Group, the licensing organization that has ownership of both Presley’s music and likeness, is accusing…
Forced to pick, Grok’s AI model chooses Republicans. OpenAI’s picks Democrats.TechCrunch · 3 days agoBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Most AI chatbots won’t outright tell you who to vote for, but some of the models behind them will. A new study found that when forced to choose in this year’s upcoming…
Did Texas use artificial intelligence to call fourth-down play against Florida? Longhorns AD clarifies reportOutKick · 4 days agoArch Manning 2026 season at Texas has far underperformed what many expected out of a potential top-10 draft pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. Ryan Leaf speaks with Craig Carton about Manning's season so far. On the same day that the University…
OpenAI now trains its frontier AI models with no internet accessThe Verge · 4 days agoAI agents can still communicate without a network connection, OpenAI found. OpenAI paused training its frontier AI models in September, after disclosing several incidents in which its AI agents broke out of their testing environments to…
Artificial IntelligenceDrishti IAS · 31 h agoFor Prelims: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Weak AI, Strong AI, Differences Between AI, ML and DL, Types of AI. For Mains: Indigenization of Technology & Developing New Technology, Awareness in Different Fields, Advantages of AI…
HKEX Launches Artificial Intelligence and Semiconductor IndicesAOL.com · 40 h agoLaunch of HKEX Artificial Intelligence Index and HKEX Semiconductor Index to provide benchmarks for two key technology themes HKEX continues to expand proprietary index suite and broaden coverage of emerging technology trends License…
Inside the biggest feud in artificial intelligenceAustralian Financial Review · 33 h agoOne person consumed by this question is Dario Amodei, a Princeton-educated physicist who left Google in 2016 to join OpenAI, then a fledgling non-profit artificial intelligence research lab. He looked ... Gift articles to anyone you choose…
Jack Dorsey’s Block made an AI model that talks to you like an awkward new friendThe Verge · 4 days agoYou have got to listen to these conversations with Block’s new Dessa AI model. Jack Dorsey’s Block announced an AI model called Dessa that’s trained “from scratch on nothing but human conversation,” and to show off the model, Block shared…
NSF State and Regional Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Hubs Webinar@NSF · 38 h agoThe NSF State and Regional Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Hubs program aims to expand access to the computing resources needed for AI-enabled scientific discovery and strengthen research, education, and workforce development at…
Artificial Intelligence Advances Precision Cardiovascular CareEuropean Medical Journal · 3 days agoArtificial intelligence in cardiovascular medicine advances diagnostics, risk prediction, and clinical decision support. This site is intended for healthcare professionals Artificial Intelligence Advances Precision Cardiovascular Care…
Artificial Intelligence: A Blessing or a Curse?The Good Men Project · 3 days ago“Generative AI is one of the most exciting and powerful technologies of our time, but it also presents new challenges and risks that we need to address thoughtfully and proactively.” Is every great invention a blessing or a curse? What if…
Letter: Delay the deployment of artificial intelligenceGrand Forks Herald · 3 days agoWhile the promise of AI dominates headlines, the mounting societal and environmental risks demand a profound and immediate slowdown. Letter: Delay the deployment of artificial intelligence While the promise of AI dominates headlines, the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$11.8K

This week$618

At stake$1.6K

In the news117 headlines today, 745 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. I

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN · about the company250.24+0.46%
Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company100.01−0.24%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company77.61−0.31%
Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company318.68+0.59%
Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company623.80−1.07%
Microsoft CorporationMSFT · about the company529.86−0.51%
NVDANVDA · about the company

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions