Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by October 31?

Polymarket Finance Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $191 today · $5K traded · $2.4K at stake · prices read 58 min ago

The odds

48%↑$200B

Reaches $200B48%
Reaches $210B38%
Reaches $220B3%
Reaches $245B3%
Reaches $270B2%

Falls to $185B22%
Falls to $170B22%
Falls to $160B7%

Already reached: ↑$195B

How the odds have moved

Falls to $170B: 8% on Oct 20, 22% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 24, 9 PM ETFalls to $170B: 28% → 18%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
✓ ↑$195B	>99%	▲ 50	100¢	100¢		$455
↑$200B	48%	▲ 1	6¢	90¢	$1.11	$400
↑$210B	38%		4¢	72¢	$1.39	$501
↑$220B	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.83	$1.4K
↑$245B	3%		0¢	6¢	$17.24	$330
↑$270B	2%		0¢	4¢	$27.78	$649
↓$160B	7%		1¢	13¢	$7.46	$466
↓$170B	22%		3¢	72¢	$1.39
↓$185B	22%	▲ 1	3¢	10¢	$10.00	$872

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Databricks

Search ›

PySpark Window Functions on Databricks: Latest-Record Dedup, Running Totals, Sessionisation, and the Frame TrapsDEV Community · 29 h agoWindow functions show up in almost every PySpark interview, and in almost every real pipeline: deduplicating CDC feeds, picking the latest record per key, running totals, sessionisation. They're also an easy place to write code that's…
PySpark Caching on Azure Databricks: cache() vs persist() vs checkpoint(), the Disk Cache, and When Caching HurtsDEV Community · 29 h agoOn Databricks you'll run into: They solve different problems. The Spark cache saves recomputation (joins, aggregations, UDFs). The disk cache saves I/O from ADLS. Interviewers like asking for this distinction, so it's worth being crisp…
Real-time energy trading and analytics on DatabricksDatabricks · 3 days agoSee how Databricks combines real-time energy trading, risk monitoring, machine learning, and historical analytics with one platform and one governance model. by Victoria Sicking and Jack Yallop Stale data is more than an inconvenience for…
Spark Join Strategies on Databricks: Broadcast, Sort-Merge, Shuffle Hash, and What AQE ChangesDEV Community · 3 days agoThis post walks through the join strategies Spark actually uses, how it chooses between them, how Adaptive Query Execution (AQE) changes that decision at runtime, and the hints you can use when you know better than the optimizer. For…
Databricks for AI EngineeringDEV Community · 3 days agoAlmost every agent running inside a company today is read-only. It searches, it summarises, it answers questions about data somebody else already wrote down, and it changes nothing. Nobody sat in a meeting and decided this. It is what you…
Databricks' latest improves AI memory, infrastructure for agentsData Technologies · 4 days agoDatabricks continues to refine AI development. This week, Databricks unveiled two new tools meant to address the enterprise-level challenge of making and maintaining reliable AI agents. Agent Memory, in beta testing, addresses the quality…
Building a Configuration-Driven Databricks Platform on AWS (Part 1)DEV Community · 4 days agoIf your platform team is bottlenecked by manual AWS console clicks and fragmented Terraform scripts every time someone needs a new Databricks workspace, you have a scaling problem. A request for another Databricks workspace involves more…
SpaceX AI launches partner network with names like Nvidia, Databricks, BainTradingView · 4 days agoTradingView SpaceX AI launches partner network with names like Nvidia, Databricks, Bain - SpaceX's artificial intelligence unit launched a partner network with more than 130 companies, including Nvidia , Databricks, Bain & Company, and…
Delta Lake Table Maintenance on Databricks: OPTIMIZE, Z-ORDER vs Liquid Clustering, and VACUUMDEV Community · 4 days agoMost Delta tables don't get slow because of one bad query. They get slow because nobody looks after them. Streaming jobs and frequent small batch writes leave thousands of tiny files behind, deletes and updates leave old files sitting in…
Auto Loader and Structured Streaming on Azure Databricks: Checkpoints, Schema Evolution, and Exactly-OnceDEV Community · 4 days agoHere's a practical walkthrough with PySpark code you can drop into a notebook. A few things worth being able to explain: The trigger is a cost decision, not just a technical one. availableNow=True is what I'd use for most batch-style…
Suntory Oceania taps Databricks, Copilot Pro in AI driveiTnews · 4 days agoSuntory Oceania is bolstering its AI capabilities with investments in Databricks and Copilot Pro, while at the same time exploring native agentic options for its SAP core. Digital and IT director Matt Dixon told the SAP NOW AI Tour in…
Databricks sells AI. 24 of its 29 design questions are classic, not AI.DEV Community · 5 days ago24 of Databricks' 29 reported design questions are classic system design. Its 6 most reported questions include an ordered IP firewall with CIDR rules, and 5 are reported at no other company we track. Snowflake, another data platform, has…

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Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?

$210.83Bhigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $210.83B.

Reaches $200B76%
Reaches $225B16%

Falls to $140B3%
Falls to $135B3%

Already reached: ↑$190B, ↑$180B, ↑$170B, ↑$160B

Finance › IPOs & deals

Anthropic IPO by __?

Nov 24, 2026even chance by

October 31, 2026<1%
November 15, 20261%
November 30, 202692%▲ 40

2 more

December 15, 202694%▲ 21
December 31, 202695%▲ 20

Finance › Commodities

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?

$106.06high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $106.06.

Reaches $100>99%
Reaches $10559%

Falls to $9521%
Falls to $906%

Already reached: ↑ $90, ↑ $95, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↓ $90, ↑ $90

Finance › IPOs & deals

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

31%$1.75–$2.0T

$1.75–$2.0T31%▲ 4
$2.0–$2.25T23%▲ 4
$1.5–$1.75T17%▼ 2

7 more

$2.25–$2.5T12%▲ 3
$1.25–$1.5T4%▼ 1
$2.5–$2.75T4%▲ 1
<$1.25T3%▼ 3
No IPO by December 31, 20273%
$3.0T+2%
$2.75–$3.0T2%▲ 1

Finance › Commodities

US gas prices tomorrow (Oct 27, 2026)

$4.27median

$4.24$4.33

Median $4.27Middle half $4.27 – $4.27

Finance › IPOs & deals

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

99%$ANT

$ANT99%▲ 46
$ANTH<1%▼ 28
$ANAI<1%▼ 3

6 more

$AAI<1%▼ 10
$CLDE<1%▼ 4
$APBC<1%▼ 4
$ARPC<1%
$CLAU<1%▼ 5
$CLD<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Settles onfe.secondmarket.com

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$5K

Today$191

This week$235

At stake$2.4K

In the news4 headlines today, 31 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Databricks' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions