Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?

Polymarket Elections › President 2028 Closes Nov 3 · $80 today · $9.6K traded · $2.8K at stake · prices read 63 min ago

The odds

30%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 24% on Oct 20, 30% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Yes 30% 29¢ 30¢ $3.33 $9.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Safe Republican, Senate

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Elections › President 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

38%J.D. Vance
  • J.D. Vance38%▲ 2
  • Marco Rubio18%
  • Ron DeSantis4%
40 more
  • Tucker Carlson3%
  • Ted Cruz2%
  • Donald Trump2%
  • Donald Trump Jr.2%
  • Ivanka Trump2%
  • Thomas Massie1%
  • Elon Musk1%▲ 1
  • Brian Kemp1%
  • Glenn Youngkin<1%
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
  • Josh Hawley<1%
  • Rand Paul<1%
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • Katie Britt<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Nikki Haley<1%
  • Sarah Huckabee Sanders<1%
  • Byron Donalds<1%
  • Elise Stefanik<1%
  • Kristi Noem<1%
  • Mike Pence<1%
  • Steve Bannon<1%
  • Joe Kent<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • John McEntee<1%
  • Matt Gaetz<1%
  • John Thune<1%
  • Tom Brady<1%
  • Erika Kirk<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%
Elections › President 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

19%JD Vance
  • JD Vance19%▼ 1
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
  • Gavin Newsom12%
51 more
  • Marco Rubio10%▲ 1
  • Jon Ossoff9%
  • Kamala Harris4%
  • Josh Shapiro3%
  • Ron DeSantis3%
  • Pete Buttigieg3%
  • Andy Beshear2%
  • James Talarico2%
  • Donald Trump2%
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
  • Tucker Carlson1%
  • Mark Kelly1%
  • Wes Moore1%
  • Thomas Massie1%
  • Raphael Warnock1%
  • Ro Khanna1%
  • JB Pritzker1%
  • Ivanka Trump1%
  • Donald Trump Jr.1%
  • Ted Cruz1%
  • Rahm Emanuel<1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer<1%
  • Michelle Obama<1%
  • Jamie Dimon<1%
  • Glenn Youngkin<1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard<1%
  • Greg Abbott<1%
  • Elon Musk<1%
  • Stephen Smith<1%
  • Nikki Haley<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Eric Trump<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Jalen Brunson<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%
  • Candace Owens<1%
  • Tim Scott<1%
  • Mike Johnson<1%
  • Doug Burgum<1%
  • Tom Cotton<1%
  • John N. Kennedy<1%
  • Rick Scott<1%
Elections › President 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

17%Gavin Newsom
  • Gavin Newsom17%▲ 1
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%▼ 1
  • Jon Ossoff15%
50 more
  • Kamala Harris6%
  • Josh Shapiro5%
  • Pete Buttigieg5%
  • Andy Beshear4%
  • Mark Kelly2%
  • James Talarico2%
  • Wes Moore2%
  • Raphael Warnock2%
  • Rahm Emanuel2%
  • J.B. Pritzker2%
  • Bernie Sanders1%
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
  • Ro Khanna1%
  • Chelsea Clinton1%
  • Cory Booker1%
  • Michelle Obama1%
  • Jon Stewart1%
  • Gretchen Whitmer1%
  • Roy Cooper<1%
  • Chris Murphy<1%
  • Mark Cuban<1%
  • Barack Obama<1%
  • Hillary Clinton<1%
  • Hunter Biden<1%
  • Ruben Gallego<1%
  • Stephen A. Smith<1%
  • Gina Raimondo<1%
  • Zohran Mamdani<1%
  • Jared Polis<1%
  • Phil Murphy<1%
  • Jasmine Crockett<1%
  • Abigail Spanberger<1%
  • Hakeem Jeffries<1%
  • Elissa Slotkin<1%
  • Josh Stein<1%
  • Chris Van Hollen<1%
  • Mitch Landrieu<1%
  • Tim Walz<1%
  • John Fetterman<1%
  • Liz Cheney<1%
  • LeBron James<1%
  • George Clooney<1%
  • MrBeast<1%
  • Oprah Winfrey<1%
  • Andrew Yang<1%
  • Beto O’Rourke<1%
  • Kim Kardashian<1%
  • Graham Platner<1%
  • Adam Schiff<1%
  • Alex Padilla<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions