Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Polymarket Elections › President 2028 Closes Sat 12:00 PM ET · $5K today · $142K traded · $23.3K at stake · prices read 14 min ago

The odds

34%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez34%▼ 7
  • Jon Ossoff33%▲ 8
  • Gavin Newsom33%▲ 8
  • Kamala Harris<1%
  • Josh Shapiro<1%

How the odds have moved

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 31% on Oct 20, 34% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 27, 10 AM ETAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 40% → 34%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 34% ▼ 7 34¢ 36¢ $2.78 $33.8K
Jon Ossoff 33% ▲ 8 32¢ 35¢ $2.86 $62.7K
Gavin Newsom 33% ▲ 8 32¢ 35¢ $2.86 $40.3K
Kamala Harris <1% 0¢ $3.1K
Josh Shapiro <1% 0¢ $2.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Gavin Newsom

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions