Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Oct 31 · $477 today · $127K traded · $16.4K at stake · prices read 11 min ago

The odds

96%No release by October 31

No release by October 3196%
October 271%
October 301%
October 23<1%
October 21<1%
October 25<1%
October 26<1%
October 28<1%
October 29<1%
October 31<1%
October 19<1%
October 20<1%▼ 2

2 more

October 22<1%
October 24<1%

How the odds have moved

No release by October 31: 96% on Oct 20, 96% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
No release by October 31	96%		96¢	99¢	$1.01	$90.9K
October 27	1%		1¢	2¢	$55.56	$1.3K
October 30	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	$1.4K
October 23	<1%			1¢	$100.00	$1.1K
October 21	<1%			1¢		$781
October 25	<1%			1¢		$985
October 26	<1%			1¢		$1.1K
October 28	<1%			1¢		$860
October 29	<1%		0¢	1¢		$723
October 31	<1%		0¢	0¢		$1.1K
October 19	<1%			0¢		$637
October 20	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$1K
October 22	<1%			0¢		$819
October 24	<1%			0¢		$378
On or prior to October 1	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$1.7K
October 2	<1%			0¢		$252
October 3	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$430
October 4	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$1.8K
October 5	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$459
October 6	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$1.7K
October 7	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$1.3K
October 8	<1%	▼ 6		0¢		$3.1K
October 9	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$2.1K
October 10	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$1.8K
October 11	<1%			0¢		$3.3K
October 12	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$693
October 13	<1%			0¢		$1.5K
October 14	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$910
October 15	<1%			0¢		$798
October 16	<1%			0¢		$500
October 17	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$1.1K
October 18	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$834

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Gemini, Google AI, Gemini Pro Model

Search ›

How to Track Your Brand in Google AI Overviews Without a Paid APIDEV Community · 13 h agoGoogle AI Overviews now answer a large share of commercial questions before any website gets a click. Business owners ask me the same thing every week: are we even in those answers? The honest problem is tooling. Most AI visibility…
Save up to $200 on Google Chromebooks — discover what's possible when you bring the power of Google AI to your ChromebookTom's Hardware · 18 h agoTom's Hardware Approved - Sponsored Offer Lighter on your backpack and wallet With a 0.78-inch profile and a 2.99-pound weight, the IdeaPad Slim 3 Chromebook is a portable device you can carry with you. The 14-inch IPS display with WUXGA…
Convertion F45 Server to Thin XFS LVM Provisioning with Libvirt-Hooks based on BTRFS-XFS Setup ( Assisted by Google AI )lxer.com · 32 h agoConverting a server (such as a high-density virtualization platform) to Thin XFS LVM Provisioning with Libvirt-Hooks solves the fundamental performance bottlenecks and management complexities inherent in running virtual machines on top of…
Automate a boring task for $0 with the Google AI Studio free API tierDEV Community · 39 h agoGoogle AI Studio gives you a free Gemini API key with a generous free tier. No credit card. Here is the full path from zero to a working automation. No SDK needed. Plain curl works: gemini-2.5-flash-lite is the fastest model and has the…
Comic Studio AI: Turning Voice & Text Prompts into 4-Panel Comics with Google AI Studio, Gemini & ImagenDEV Community · 46 h agoEducation Track: Build Apps with Google AI Studio As a Google Developer Expert (GDE) in AI & Cloud, one of the biggest bottlenecks I see when teaching developers and students about multimodal AI architectures is turning abstract technical…
Gemini 4 Argon: 1M Tokens, $2 Input, Paid Only [2026]Tech Insider · 22 h agoThe pricing carries a deadline. Google lists an introductory rate of $2 per 1 million input tokens and $10 per 1 million output tokens through November 30, 2026. From December 1, those rates double to $4 and $20. Developers who build on…
How to check whether ChatGPT and Google AI Overviews name your local businessDEV Community · 2 days agoAI answers change. Ask an engine the same question twice and it can name different businesses. Engines also guess where you are from your connection when the question has no place in it. So use fixed questions with the place name in each…
Google brings Gemini’s Personal Intelligence to the car, with your inbox along for the rideCrypto Briefing · 24 h agoGoogle's AI assistant can now pull from Gmail, Calendar, Maps, YouTube and other services to tailor its answers while you drive Google / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain) Google wants its AI assistant to know where you’re headed before you…
US Blacklists Sam Altman's Old Y Combinator China Pick Over Startup Built On Stolen Google AI SecretsZeroHedge · 2 days agoLatest: Can The Gulf Be Rebuilt? Of all the people who could end up on a US sanctions list for bankrolling stolen Google AI technology, a former Microsoft executive hand-picked by Sam Altman to run Y Combinator's China arm was probably not…
You can now manage Gemini Notebooks directly from your Gemini chatsAndroid Authority · 21 h agoRyan started his career in the field of science, bouncing from lab to lab measuring chemicals, writing reports, and so on. After deciding to pursue his interest in covering video games and technology, he traded in his lab coat for a…
Gemini Horoscope Today, October 25, 2026News18 · 12 h agoIt is not appropriate to exaggerate small things in the family. This will keep the atmosphere of the house pleasant. Gemini Horoscope Today, October 25, 2026: Ganesha says that today will bring you more than expected and opposite results…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 31, 2026 7:59 PM ET

Traded$127K

Today$477

This week$1.7K

At stake$16.4K

In the news35 headlines today, 593 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must eith

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions