Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Nov 30 · $280 today · $15.1K traded · $1.3K at stake · prices read 37 min ago

The odds

29%Alibaba

Alibaba29%▲ 4
Moonshot23%
Xiaomi17%
MiniMax11%
Z.ai7%▼ 5
DeepSeek5%▼ 1
Tencent4%
Baidu3%
ByteDance3%
Meituan1%
StepFun1%

How the odds have moved

Alibaba: 25% on Oct 20, 29% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Alibaba	29%	▲ 4	29¢	32¢	$3.13	$3.4K
Moonshot	23%		23¢	26¢	$3.85	$2K
Xiaomi	17%		16¢	22¢	$4.52	$3.2K
MiniMax	11%		9¢	17¢	$5.81	$348
Z.ai	7%	▼ 5	2¢	14¢	$7.14	$4.3K
DeepSeek	5%	▼ 1	1¢	12¢	$8.55	$310
Tencent	4%		1¢	8¢	$12.82	$488
Baidu	3%		1¢	7¢	$14.49	$361
ByteDance	3%		1¢	7¢	$15.15	$259
Meituan	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	$203
StepFun	1%		0¢	1¢	$71.43	$197

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Third-Best Chinese AI Company

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Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

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Alibaba39%▼ 11
Moonshot28%▲ 15
Z.ai10%

8 more

DeepSeek7%▲ 4
ByteDance5%▲ 3
Baidu4%▲ 2
Xiaomi4%▼ 1
MiniMax3%
Tencent3%▲ 1
Meituan<1%
StepFun<1%

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Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

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Anthropic57%▲ 5
Google32%▼ 3
OpenAI6%

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xAI1%
Meta1%
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Moonshot<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Z.ai<1%
Mistral<1%
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Meituan<1%
Amazon<1%
Baidu<1%

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Which company has the best AI model end of October?

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Google89%▲ 3
Anthropic9%▼ 1
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta<1%
Moonshot<1%
Alibaba<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.27Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.27T.

Reaches $1.5T96%
Reaches $1.75T84%

Falls to $800B4%
Falls to $700B4%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$15.1K

Today$280

This week$2.8K

At stake$1.3K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=lab

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedBABA · about the company100.25+0.61%
Baidu, Inc.BIDU · about the company77.85+0.84%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions