Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Jul 31, 2027 · $4.8K today · $133K traded · $10.4K at stake · prices read 20 min ago

The odds

24%S + MP

S + MP24%▲ 3
S + MP + C + V19%▼ 3
S18%▲ 5
S + MP + C12%▲ 1
M + KD + L10%▲ 1
M + KD + L + SD8%▼ 1
M + KD + L + C7%▼ 3
Other1%▼ 1
S + MP + V1%▼ 5
S + C1%
S + MP + C + KD1%
M + KD + SD1%

9 more

M + SD<1%
S + MP + C + L<1%
S + M<1%
M<1%
S + C + L<1%
M + KD<1%
S + C + V<1%
S + V<1%
S + MP + L<1%

How the odds have moved

S + MP: 23% on Oct 20, 24% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
S + MP	24%	▲ 3	24¢	25¢	$4.00	$16.1K
S + MP + C + V	19%	▼ 3	19¢	20¢	$5.00	$21.1K
S	18%	▲ 5	18¢	19¢	$5.26	$14.5K
S + MP + C	12%	▲ 1	12¢	13¢	$7.69	$12K
M + KD + L	10%	▲ 1	10¢	11¢	$9.35	$6.7K
M + KD + L + SD	8%	▼ 1	8¢	9¢	$10.64	$11.1K
M + KD + L + C	7%	▼ 3	7¢	8¢	$11.90	$12.5K
Other	1%	▼ 1	1¢	2¢	$55.56	$4.4K
S + MP + V	1%	▼ 5	0¢	1¢	$76.92	$6.3K
S + C	1%			2¢	$66.67	$4K
S + MP + C + KD	1%		0¢	1¢		$4.7K
M + KD + SD	1%		0¢	1¢		$3.2K
M + SD	<1%		0¢	1¢		$1.7K
S + MP + C + L	<1%		0¢	1¢		$3.5K
S + M	<1%			1¢		$2.5K
M	<1%		0¢	0¢		$3.2K
S + C + L	<1%			0¢		$2.3K
M + KD	<1%			0¢		$2K
S + C + V	<1%			0¢		$298
S + V	<1%			0¢		$527
S + MP + L	<1%			0¢		$518

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Swedish

Search ›

Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotDecrypt · 2 days agoSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool…
Elections in Sweden undecided after loss for far-right party@BrusselsTimes · 14 h agoThe Swedish people woke up on Monday morning after a nail-biting vote count without knowing if the incumbent center-right coalition government will be replaced by the center-left opposition or by a new combination of parties across the…
Briton facing forced separation from baby son after Sweden orders his deportationthe Guardian · 4 days agoSimon Montgomery’s application to remain after the birth of his son last year was rejected on multiple grounds by the country’s migration agency, a decision that was then upheld by the migration court. He is appealing to the higher…
Sweden Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026The Rio Times · 43 h agoSweden’s 2026 parliamentary election produced a narrow centre-left majority, with the centre-left bloc holding 176 of 349 seats in the Riksdag, the national legislature. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s government resigned after the…
Somali MP Citizenship, Vote Fraud Scandal Fuels Calls for New Election in SwedenHungarian Conservative · 11 h agoAlmost two months have passed since Sweden’s highly controversial parliamentary election, which saw the Social Democratic-led leftist bloc secure a razor-thin victory over the anti-immigration Tidö coalition of right-wing parties. Yet…
Inside Sweden: Why force foreigners to leave Sweden to change their residency permit?The Local Sweden · 3 days agoRichard Orange suggests that Sweden should stop splitting couples and families by forcing people to leave Sweden when applying for residency on new grounds, before running through the week's news. The former Northvolt worker Brenda…
Sweden’s Centre Party leader hands task of forming government back to parliament speakerThe Irish Times · 12 h agoSwedish Centre Party leader ‌Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist said on Monday she was handing the ‌process of forming a government back to parliament speaker Andreas Norlen, as widely expected, after he tasked her a week ago with trying to do so…
Sweden Blocks ChatGPT and Claude for Government Staff, Keeps Microsoft CopilotCoinCentral · 39 h agoSweden’s Government Offices will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers starting Monday, Oct. 26. Microsoft will remain the only approved AI provider through its Copilot tool. BREAKING: Sweden’s government to block ChatGPT and Claude…
Sweden's government blocks ChatGPT and Claude, keeps CopilotNotebookcheck · 2 days agoSweden's Government Offices is blocking ChatGPT and Claude. From Monday, October 26, the browser versions of both chatbots will no longer be reachable on staff computers, as Sveriges Radio first reported. The Government Offices includes…
Musk won his battle with Swedish union but it is still business as usualThe Irish Times · 39 h agoOne of my bugbears about journalists – myself included – is that we tend to pile into stories when they first develop, explain why they matter, then forget about them and move on to the next new thing. But there is value in paying…
POLISARIO Representative in Sweden highlights latest developments in Sahrawi causeSahara Press Service (SPS) · 2 days agoUppsala (Sweden), 24 October 2026 (SPS) – The POLISARIO Front’s representative to Sweden and Norway, Senia El Bachir Abderrahman, participated today as guest of honour in events marking the 60th anniversary of the Swedish organisation…
Trump says US should prioritize migrants from Norway, Sweden over conflict-hit nationsHindustan Times · 44 h agoDuring the speech, Trump recalled asking Democratic senators why the US continued to accept immigrants from countries he disparaged rather than prioritizing people from Scandinavian nations. The comments revive a controversy dating back to…

Related markets

All around the world ›

Elections › Around the world

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

>99%Student List – Students Win

Student List – Students Win>99%▲ 73
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia<1%▼ 74
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%

7 more

Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%

Elections › Around the world

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

>99%Lula da Silva <4%

Lula da Silva <4%>99%▲ 82
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+<1%▼ 1
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%<1%▼ 5

5 more

Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%<1%▼ 36
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%<1%▼ 38
Lula da Silva 4-8%<1%▼ 1
Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
Lula da Silva 12%+<1%

Elections › Around the world

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

68%Yashar

Yashar68%▼ 1
Likud31%▲ 1
Together1%

3 more

Shas<1%
The Democrats<1%
Otzma Yehudit<1%

Elections › Around the world

Next French Presidential Election

44%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen44%
Édouard Philippe18%▲ 3
David Lisnard14%

42 more

Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%▼ 1
Raphaël Glucksmann3%▼ 1
François Hollande3%
Bruno Retailleau1%
Éric Zemmour1%
Jordan Bardella1%
Gabriel Attal1%
Dominique de Villepin1%
Sarah Knafo1%
Christine Lagarde<1%
Sébastien Lecornu<1%
Marion Maréchal<1%
Xavier Bertrand<1%
François Ruffin<1%
Ségolène Royal<1%
François Asselineau<1%
Jean Castex<1%
Natacha Polony<1%
Laurent Wauquiez<1%
Marine Tondelier<1%
Fabien Roussel<1%
Olivier Faure<1%
Clémentine Autain<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
Michel Barnier<1%
Valérie Pécresse<1%
François Bayrou<1%
Élisabeth Borne<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
Gérald Darmanin<1%
Carole Delga<1%
Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
Manuel Bompard<1%
Mathilde Panot<1%
Juan Branco<1%
Clémence Guetté<1%
Karim Bouamrane<1%
Lucie Castets<1%
Yannick Jadot<1%
François Baroin<1%
Anasse Kazib<1%
Sylvain Durif<1%

Elections › Around the world

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

22%Ilija Srdanović

Ilija Srdanović22%
Vladan Đokić2%▲ 2
Aleksandar Vučić1%▼ 1

7 more

Ana Brnabić<1%
Ivica Dačić<1%
Miloš Vučević<1%
Đuro Macut<1%
Stefan Krkobabić<1%
Branimir Jovanović<1%
Dragan Đilas<1%

Elections › Around the world

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

22.2median

1639

Median 22.2Middle half 19.6 – 26.2

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJul 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$133K

Today$4.8K

This week$20K

At stake$10.4K

In the news8 headlines today, 74 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions