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Which countries will have a recession before 2027?
The odds
- United Kingdom12%▼ 1
- Japan6%
- India3%
- China3%
How the odds have moved
United Kingdom: 14% on Oct 20, 12% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 12% | ▼ 1 | 11¢ | 13¢ | $7.52 | 85.2K |
| Japan | 6% | 5¢ | 7¢ | $15.15 | 35.2K | |
| India | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $21.74 | 23.9K | |
| China | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.83 | 34.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: recession, United Kingdom
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• Pray for United Kingdom and Ireland TerritoryEach week through 2026, Salvationists around the world are uniting in prayer for the same territory or region of The Salvation Army. Prayer requests are shared by the territory/region to help us pray with precision and power for one… - Weather Forecast and Conditions for Ilfracombe, England, United Kingdom - The Weather Channel| Weather.com The Weather Channel Ilfracombe, England, United Kingdom
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Are any Regions of the United Kingdom Likely to Break Away?Center for the Study of Federalism “50 Shades of Federalism” – A New Federalism Website “Advanced Introduction” to Federalism Book “Anti-Federalist Federalism” and the Coronavirus Pandemic “Big-Government Federalism” and Artificial… -
The Largest Reservoirs In The United KingdomReservoirs in the United Kingdom play an important role in water conservation and some are also popular spots for recreation in the country. -
United Kingdom Deploys RAF Typhoon Fighters To Defend Saudi Arabia From Houthi AttacksPublished 20 Oct 2026, 12:02 UTCUpdated 20 Oct 2026, 13:06 UTC UK to deploy RAF Typhoon jets on defensive missions to protect Saudi cities and infrastructure. Missions are defensive only, not offensive strikes against Houthis, per MOD… - easyJet adds further connections from the United KingdomEconomy Class & Beyond easyJet is continuing to improve its UK network, with five more new routes lined up, following the 18 routes that went on sale in September. The airline will launch three new routes from Southampton, providing more…
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United Kingdom: Closer EU ties back in focus – Standard Chartered"The UK’s long-term relationship with the EU has returned to mainstream discussion as Prime Minister Burnham seeks to lay out the options around next month’s UK-EU summit." "These could range from closer cooperation within Labour’s… -
Scotland launches new campaign to leave the United KingdomJohn Swinney has announced a nationwide SNP campaign for Scottish independence, saying a new referendum could take place sooner than expected. Scottish First Minister John Swinney announced the “Choose Scotland” campaign at the Scottish… -
Sarah MacIntosh, Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the United Nations — Statement at the UN Security Council on the Situation in ColombiaHuman Rights in the Age of Climate Change America250: Declaration of Unalienable Rights, Backed by Sacred Honor and Rockets’ Red Glare The Council of Europe in Search of the Future Statement by S. Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs… -
Joint framework for the enhanced partnership between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Republic of the Philippines, March 2025Published 8 March 2025 © Crown copyright 2025 2. In August 2023, the Foreign Secretaries of the UK and the Philippines met and recognised the increasingly close ties and deepening bilateral relations between the UK and the Philippines… -
The UK and the Arctic: an update to the United Kingdom’s Arctic Policy FrameworkThis document sets out the UK government's approach to the Arctic, and provides an update to the UK Arctic policy framework. This document sets out the UK government's approach to the Arctic, and provides an update to the UK Arctic policy…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.