Kansas Senate winner? (2026)
61%Roger Marshall
- Roger Marshall61%▼ 1
- Adam Hamilton40%▲ 1
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Kansas Senate winner? (2028)
The odds
74%Republican party
- Republican party74%▲ 3
- Democratic party26%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Republican party: 73% on Oct 20, 74% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican party | 74% | ▲ 3 | 73¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 3.3K |
| Democratic party | 26% | ▼ 2 | 25¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 4.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kansas Senate
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Kansas Senate rivals distance themselves from party leaders in fiery debateAffordability concerns dominate the Kansas Senate race as Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton releases a video welcoming President Donald Trump to the state. Fox Business contributor Lou Basenese analyzes whether an economic pitch can win… -
Voters sound off before Kansas Senate debate between Roger Marshall and Adam HamiltonThe Kansas Senate race is becoming increasingly competitive between incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton. They will go head-to-head on the debate stage Wednesday. CBS News reporter Katrina Kaufman… -
As Kansas Senate race tightens, Marshall argues opponent is just another Democrat, while Hamilton says he's "independent-minded"October 22, 2026 / 12:05 AM EDT / CBS News The candidates in Kansas' surprisingly competitive Senate race faced off in a debate Wednesday evening, as Republicans fight to head off the possibility of their first loss in a Kansas Senate… -
Here’s what’s making the Kansas Senate race so competitiveAnalysis | Here’s what’s making the Kansas Senate race so competitive The Washington Post Kansas has turned into a battleground state, with a unique Democratic candidate and Trump’s unpopular policies hurting the Midwest. Kansas has the… -
Kansas Senate race: Democrat welcomes Trump as economic concerns drive midterm votersFox News Kansas Senate race: Democrat welcomes Trump as economic concerns drive midterm voters Democrat Adam Hamilton welcomes President Donald Trump to Kansas as affordability tops midterm concerns. Fox Business' Lou Basenese weighs in on… -
Fights over loyalty to America, party and Trump dominate Michigan and Kansas Senate debatesMichigan and Kansas held some of the final major Senate debates of the 2026 midterm elections on Wednesday night. And they were a study in contrasts. The Michigan Senate debate between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike… -
Roger Marshall and Adam Hamilton face off in fiery final Kansas Senate debateRepublican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton went head to head in a contentious debate Wednesday night as polls show a toss-up in ruby-red Kansas with less than two weeks until Election Day. Marshall and Hamilton traded… -
Trump pushback, Biden 'disaster' and gender surprise: 5 key moments from Kansas Senate debateNate Foy reports from Park City, Kansas, where President Donald Trump campaigns for Sen. Roger Marshall in a crucial bid to retain Republican control. The hour-long showdown came less than two weeks before Election Day as Marshall seeks a… -
Kansas Senate polls show dead heat as voters cite economy, bordersKansas voters Felita Kahrs and William Six join 'Fox & Friends' to discuss the tight Senate race between GOP candidate Roger Marshall and Democrat candidate Adam Hamilton. Kansas Senate polls show dead heat as voters cite economy, borders… -
Kansas Senate race on a knife edge as Democrats aim to end 94 years of Republican dominanceKansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932 – does Adam Hamilton have the courage, brain and heart to cause an extraordinary upset? Just two years after Donald Trump won Kansas by 16 points in his fight to regain the White… -
Kansas Senate debate: Marshall, Hamilton spar on diesel prices, tariffs as race tightensKCTV Kansas Senate debate: Marshall, Hamilton spar on diesel prices, tariffs as race tightens Student arrested after attempting to bring gun into Wyandotte High School MoDOT announces locations of increased interstate speed limits Fall… -
Farmers, Health Care and Highways: 5 Takeaways from the Kansas Senate DebateOnce upon a time, the Kansas Senate race was expected to be a sleepy affair, one where Senator Roger Marshall, a first-term Republican, would cruise to re-election. Then came Adam Hamilton. In a matter of months, Mr. Hamilton, the…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.