Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Yashar win? (Oct 27, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Oct 27, 2027 · $4 today · $894 traded · $843 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

The odds

22.1median

1438

Median 22.1Middle half 20.2 – 25.1

How the odds have moved

Median: 22 on Oct 19, 22.1 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 17	92%	87¢	96¢	$1.04
Above 20	78%	79¢	99¢	$1.01	223
Above 23	38%	34¢	42¢	$2.38	1.0K
Above 26	20%	16¢	23¢	$4.35	973
Above 29	6%	3¢	8¢	$12.50	1.7K
Above 32	5%		9¢	$11.11	1.1K
Above 35	4%		7¢	$14.29	78.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Yashar

Search ›

Netanyahu summons Police Commissioner, Yashar Party furiousIsrael National News · 37 h agoPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu summoned Police Commissioner Danny Levy for a discussion on police preparations ahead of the elections. Netanyahu summons Police Commissioner, Yashar Party furious
Yashar Partyjpost.com · 43 h agoNetanyahu to Sohlberg: Discussion was on security threats, rather than election integrity • Police chief Levy: 'police will do everything in their power to safeguard Israeli democracy' The average gap between the two major blocs stands at…
Yashar Party urges Central Elections Committee to investigate fake messages sent in its nameIsrael National News · 23 h agoThe Yashar party has contacted the Central Elections Committee following the circulation of messages that it says falsely appear to be official communications from the party, using its name and the phone number designated for unsubscribing…
Yashar seeks to prevent Netanyahu-police chief election integrity meetingThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 36 h agoGadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party said Sunday it had asked Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara and Central Elections Committee (CEC) chairman Noam Sohlberg to stop a meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called with Police Commissioner…
Israel Election 2026: What does Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar stand for?The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 27 h agoYashar, founded in September 2025, is one of many vying for citizens’ votes in the elections for the 26th Knesset, which will be held on October 27. Led by Gadi Eisenkot, Yashar occupies the political center and currently leads the polls…
Yashar's Gadi Eisenkot reacts to Netanyahu's plan for alternative state financingThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 2 days agoYashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot reacted to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plan for Israel to make use of alternative financial mechanisms, releasing a campaign video on X/Twitter on Saturday in which the former IDF chief described…
Yashar calls to halt PM Netanyahu’s meeting with police chief — Jerusalem PostUA.NEWS · 31 h agoIn Israel, the Yashar party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, appealed to Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara and Central Election Committee Chairman Noam Sohlberg, asking them to halt Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with Police…
Israel Election 2026: Netanyahu's Likud party trails Eisenkot's YasharThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 2 days agoJust two days before Israelis head to the polls, the four latest election surveys show a similar picture: Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leads Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, but neither of the two major political blocs has enough…
Netanyahu’s Likud Trails Eisenkot’s Yashar In Israeli Pre-poll Surveys – AnalysisEurasia Review · 3 days agoBy P. K. Balachandran According to the latest opinion surveys published by The Jerusalem Post, Prime Minister Benjamin Natanyahu’s Likud party is trailing behind Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. The elections carry global importance given the…
Final Israel election polls put Eisenkot's Yashar ahead of Likud, but neither bloc wins a majorityynetglobal · 3 days agoThree major TV surveys give the anti-Netanyahu bloc 52 to 56 seats against 50 for the prime minister's allies, leaving Arab parties potentially pivotal; Eisenkot's Yashar leads Likud, while Ofer Winter falls below the threshold in all three
Yashar accuses Netanyahu of silencing Sephardi Likud candidates in AI campaign videotimesofisrael · 7 days agoGadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party posts an AI-generated video depicting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu eating lobster and accusing him of sidelining Mizrahi members of his Likud party during the election campaign. The video comes after…
Gadi Eisenkot Challenges Benjamin Netanyahu as Yashar Bloc Leads in Israel Election PollsNewsCord · 7 days agoPublished 19 Oct 2026, 05:21 UTCUpdated 20 Oct 2026, 00:21 UTC Gadi Eisenkot emerges as Netanyahu's main challenger in the Israeli election race. Polls show Eisenkot's Yashar bloc ahead or near parity with Netanyahu's Likud. DW was read…

Related markets

All around the world ›

Elections › Around the world

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

>99%Student List – Students Win

Student List – Students Win>99%▲ 73
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia<1%▼ 74
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%

7 more

Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%

Elections › Around the world

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

>99%Lula da Silva <4%

Lula da Silva <4%>99%▲ 82
Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+<1%▼ 1
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%<1%▼ 5

5 more

Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%<1%▼ 36
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%<1%▼ 38
Lula da Silva 4-8%<1%▼ 1
Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
Lula da Silva 12%+<1%

Elections › Around the world

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

69%Yashar

Yashar69%
Likud31%▼ 1
Together1%

3 more

Shas<1%
The Democrats<1%
Otzma Yehudit<1%

Elections › Around the world

Next French Presidential Election

44%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen44%
Édouard Philippe19%▲ 4
David Lisnard14%

42 more

Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%▼ 1
Raphaël Glucksmann3%
François Hollande3%▲ 1
Bruno Retailleau1%
Éric Zemmour1%
Gabriel Attal1%
Sarah Knafo1%
Jordan Bardella1%
Dominique de Villepin1%
Christine Lagarde<1%
Xavier Bertrand<1%
Sébastien Lecornu<1%
Marion Maréchal<1%
François Ruffin<1%
Ségolène Royal<1%
François Asselineau<1%
Jean Castex<1%
Natacha Polony<1%
Laurent Wauquiez<1%
Marine Tondelier<1%
Fabien Roussel<1%
Olivier Faure<1%
Clémentine Autain<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
Michel Barnier<1%
Valérie Pécresse<1%
François Bayrou<1%
Élisabeth Borne<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
Gérald Darmanin<1%
Carole Delga<1%
Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
Manuel Bompard<1%
Mathilde Panot<1%
Juan Branco<1%
Clémence Guetté<1%
Karim Bouamrane<1%
Lucie Castets<1%
Yannick Jadot<1%
François Baroin<1%
Anasse Kazib<1%
Sylvain Durif<1%

Elections › Around the world

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

23%Ilija Srdanović

Ilija Srdanović23%▲ 5
Vladan Đokić2%▲ 2
Aleksandar Vučić1%

7 more

Ana Brnabić<1%
Ivica Dačić<1%
Miloš Vučević<1%
Đuro Macut<1%
Stefan Krkobabić<1%
Branimir Jovanović<1%
Dragan Đilas<1%

Elections › Around the world

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

22.2median

1639

Median 22.2Middle half 19.7 – 26.1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCentral Elections Committee

Trading closesOct 27, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$894 (5,079 contracts)

Today$4

At stake$843

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Yashar has won above 17 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions