US active housing listings in October (October 2026)

Kalshi Economy › Housing Closes Nov 5 · $976 traded · $605 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

1.18Mmedian

1.05M1.28M

Median 1.18MMiddle half 1.16M – 1.21M

How the odds have moved

Median: 1.18M on Oct 19, 1.18M now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 1,100,000 listings	96%	92¢	99¢	$1.01	142
Above 1,150,000 listings	89%	51¢	89¢	$1.12	944
Above 1,225,000 listings	4%	1¢	7¢	$14.29
Above 1,250,000 listings	2%	1¢	3¢	$33.33	12.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All housing ›

Economy › Housing

US building permits for October (October 2026)

1.38median

1.201.65

Median 1.38Middle half 1.29 – 1.45

Economy › Housing

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

53%↑ 7.50%

Reaches 7.5%53%

Falls to 6.5%22%
Falls to 6.25%14%

Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%

Economy › Housing

US new home sales for September (September 2026)

644,667median

580,000760,000

Median 644,667Middle half 622,449 – 675,000

Economy › Housing

California permitted housing units in 2026

111,250median

95,000130,000

Median 111,250Middle half 107,583 – 114,226

Economy › Housing

US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report (Oct 28, 2026)

53%Above 2%

-12%12%

Economy › Housing

Montreal single-family home price below C$625K in 2026?

30%chance

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFRED

Trading closesNov 5, 2026 7:59 PM ET

Traded$976 (1,098 contracts)

This week$3

At stake$605

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the US active housing listing count (Housing Inventory: Active Listing Count in the United States) for October 2026 is above 1,100,000 listings, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions