Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $1.2K traded · $812 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

44%Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Dec 1, 20264%
Before Apr 1, 202726%
Before Aug 1, 202736%
Before Jan 1, 202844%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Dec 1, 2026	4%	1¢	6¢	$16.67	2.1K
Before Apr 1, 2027	26%	24¢	27¢	$3.70	1.1K
Before Aug 1, 2027	36%	35¢	36¢	$2.78	1.3K
Before Jan 1, 2028	44%	40¢	48¢	$2.08	814

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Diego Garcia

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All world leaders ›

Politics › World leaders

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Aug 26, 2028even chance by

Before Nov 1, 20262%▲ 1
Before Dec 1, 20265%▲ 1
Before Jan 1, 20277%

14 more

Before Feb 1, 20278%▲ 1
Before Mar 1, 202714%
Before Apr 1, 202720%
Before May 1, 202720%▼ 3
Before Jun 1, 202726%▼ 3
Before Jul 1, 202734%▼ 2
Before Aug 1, 202734%▲ 1
Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 2
Before Oct 1, 202738%
Before Nov 1, 202741%▼ 4
Before Dec 1, 202741%▼ 4
Before Jan 1, 202846%▼ 3
Before Jul 1, 202849%▼ 11
Before Jan 1, 202954%▼ 12

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)

190.4median

160230

Median 190.4Middle half 183.2 – 199.3

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)

191.0median

140260

Median 191.0Middle half 181.6 – 200.9

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)

189.8median

140230

Median 189.8Middle half 180.8 – 203.1

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/12 - 10/18)

310.4median

250340

Median 310.4Middle half 296.3 – 316.8

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)

291.4median

250340

Median 291.4Middle half 282.0 – 308.7

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onForeign, Commonwealth & Development Office, Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.2K (5,273 contracts)

This week$1.2K

At stake$812

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the UK agrees to or announces a decision not to transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.