Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch?
The odds
85%Before Dec 1, 2026
- Before Dec 1, 202685%▼ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202790%
- Before Apr 1, 202792%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Dec 1, 2026: 34% on Oct 20, 85% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 11 PM ETBefore Dec 1, 2026: 78% → 84%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 85% | ▼ 2 | 83¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 1.6K |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 90% | 88¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 13.3K | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 92% | ▼ 1 | 87¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: United States Triumphal Arch, Washington
Search ›-
White House: Trump Arch Security Plans Remain IntactFinal site plans for President Donald Trump's proposed 250-foot triumphal arch omit military features he previously announced, according to documents the Interior Department submitted to the National Capital Planning Commission, but a… -
Rick Barnes Updates Jalen Washington's Tennessee Eligibility BattleTennessee head coach Rick Barnes remains optimistic about Jalen Washington's eligibility, but the Volunteers are preparing to move forward without him as uncertainty continues surrounding his playing status. Tennessee basketball continues… -
Washington struggles to check George Kittle on Monday nightYahoo Sports - Washington struggles to check George Kittle on Monday night 3 best San Francisco 49ers player prop bets for Week 6 vs. Commanders 49ers’ Brock Purdy sails pass over Commanders defender for smooth George Kittle MNF TD George… -
Washington Huskies Head Coach Voices Support For Expanded PlayoffSEATTLE — The Washington Huskies football team could be one of many beneficiaries to one of the biggest potential changes in the college football landscape. It was reported last week that the College Football Playoff committee is nearing a… -
Washington Commanders Week 6 Player of the Game: LB Sonny StylesIt was a tale of two halves as the Washington Commanders faced the San Francisco 49ers in their first primetime game of the season. Washington couldn't get anything going in the first half, but quarterback Jayden Daniels found the passing… -
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders Live Scores and UpdatesThis is the live blog for the San Francisco 49ers' Week 6 home game against the Washington Commanders. This will be updated frequently with information and analysis from the press box. SANTA CLARA -- This is the live blog for the San… -
Washington Commanders Activate Three for MNF Meeting vs. NinersThe Washington Commanders will officially have a key piece back ahead of the week six meeting on Monday Night Football. Amos is one of three players who were officially activated alongside linebacker Jordan Magee and running back Jeremy… -
Instant Analysis of the 49ers' 23-17 Win Over the Washington CommandersYahoo Sports Grant Cohn gives his instant analysis of the San Francisco 49ers' 23-17 win over the Washington Commanders. -
Ann Hornaday, longtime Washington Post film critic, dies at 66The Washington Post She was a Pulitzer Prize finalist and wrote a book about how to watch movies. Ann Hornaday, who championed the craft of filmmaking and helped readers understand the enduring magic and occasional disappointment of movies… -
‘These are really tough times’: House Republicans confront voter fury over Trump’s Washington in final midterm stretchGOP operatives conducting a focus group in a traditionally red Midwestern state this month were taken aback by what they heard from their own party’s voters. Asked what they blamed for rising gas prices, those voters pointed to “corrupt… -
National Guardsman injured in late-night shooting in Washington, D.C.October 19, 2026 / 8:15 AM EDT / CBS News A National Guardsman and a suspect were both shot late Sunday night in Washington, D.C, near the U.S. Capitol as members of the National Guard attempted to intervene in a fight, police said. Both… -
US and Cuba clash at UN as Washington seeks to sway annual vote on economic embargoThe United States and Cuba have clashed at the United Nations as the Trump administration sought once again to build opposition for an upcoming annual vote condemning Washington’s decades-long economic embargo against Havana UNITED NATIONS…
Related markets
All trump administration ›Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
4%chance
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
3%chance▲ 1
Trump out as President before 2027?
4%chance
Next Press Secretary?
26%Anna Kelly
- Anna Kelly26%▲ 1
- Scott Jennings8%▲ 1
- Elizabeth Pipko6%▲ 1
28 more
- Lara Trump5%▲ 3
- Maria Bartiromo5%
- Margo Martin4%▼ 8
- Beni Rae Harmony4%▼ 1
- Kayleigh McEnany3%▼ 3
- Natalie Harp3%▼ 1
- Harrison Fields3%
- Katie Pavlich2%
- Katie Miller2%▼ 1
- Taylor Rogers2%
- Tricia McLaughlin2%
- Laura Loomer2%▼ 1
- Karoline Leavitt2%
- Kari Lake2%▲ 1
- Monica Crowley2%▲ 1
- Steven Cheung2%▼ 1
- Lauren Bis1%▼ 1
- Alina Habba1%
- Liz Huston1%
- Rachel Campos-Duffy1%
- Hogan Gidley1%
- Kaelan Dorr<1%
- Matthew Boyle<1%
- Spencer Pratt<1%
- Kush Desai<1%
- Pat Adams<1%
- Ari Fleischer<1%
- Jake Paul<1%
Next Press Secretary announced by...?
Dec 18, 2027even chance by
- October 313%▼ 1
- November 3035%▲ 3
- December 3162%▲ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.