Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
30%December 31, 2028
- December 31, 20262%
- June 30, 202710%
- December 31, 202716%▲ 1
1 more
- December 31, 202830%
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Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? (2026)
The odds
16%OpenAI
- OpenAI16%▲ 2
- Meta12%▲ 2
- xAI11%▲ 1
- Baidu5%
- Z.ai5%
- Alibaba4%
- Moonshot AI3%
- Mistral3%
- Deepseek3%
- ByteDance3%
- Nvidia2%
- 01A12%
How the odds have moved
OpenAI: 16% on Oct 20, 16% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 16% | ▲ 2 | 15¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 162.4K |
| Meta | 12% | ▲ 2 | 11¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 48.5K |
| xAI | 11% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 105.6K |
| Baidu | 5% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 12.6K | |
| Z.ai | 5% | 3¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 8.1K | |
| Alibaba | 4% | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 19.4K | |
| Moonshot AI | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 6.2K | |
| Mistral | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 4.7K | |
| Deepseek | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 24.5K | |
| ByteDance | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 5.7K | |
| Nvidia | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 35.6K | |
| 01A1 | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: AI model, artificial intelligence
Search ›-
Did Texas use artificial intelligence to call fourth-down play against Florida? Longhorns AD clarifies reportArch Manning 2026 season at Texas has far underperformed what many expected out of a potential top-10 draft pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. Ryan Leaf speaks with Craig Carton about Manning's season so far. On the same day that the University… -
OpenAI now trains its frontier AI models with no internet accessAI agents can still communicate without a network connection, OpenAI found. OpenAI paused training its frontier AI models in September, after disclosing several incidents in which its AI agents broke out of their testing environments to… -
Forced to pick, Grok’s AI model chooses Republicans. OpenAI’s picks Democrats.Buy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Most AI chatbots won’t outright tell you who to vote for, but some of the models behind them will. A new study found that when forced to choose in this year’s upcoming… -
Jack Dorsey’s Block made an AI model that talks to you like an awkward new friendYou have got to listen to these conversations with Block’s new Dessa AI model. Jack Dorsey’s Block announced an AI model called Dessa that’s trained “from scratch on nothing but human conversation,” and to show off the model, Block shared… -
How artificial intelligence is helping doctors and patients fight breast cancerCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. How… -
OpenAI says it will no longer train its AI models on the live internet, citing “significant risks”Buy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. “Based on the current state of alignment research, monitoring systems, and the security of internet infrastructure, we believe the responsible approach is to conduct… -
Archie Ai Introduces Local AI Model for Realtors, Bringing Listing and Marketing Help to Their ComputersThe Archie Engine 1.3 beta combines a locally running personal assistant with image and video creation, public market comparisons, and support for everyday real estate tasks. MIAMI, FL / ACCESS Newswire / October 23, 2026 / ArchieVerse.ai… -
#Artificial IntelligenceSeraphis Group, a global private investment group, has announced plans to commit 3 billion dollars to artificial intelligence startups over the next 12 months. The commitment makes AI one of the group’s most significant areas of focus as… -
Mathematical Foundations of Artificial Intelligence (MFAI)Status: Waiting for new publication Important information for proposers and award recipients All proposals must be submitted in accordance with the requirements specified in the funding opportunity and in the Proposal & Award Policies &… -
Artificial intelligence now detects most wildfires in CaliforniaArtificial intelligence helped a company detect a big source of geothermal energy. The nation of Zambia used artificial intelligence to find new mineral wealth. Artificial intelligence appears to be have created more jobs than it… -
Artificial Intelligence for Food SecurityCSIS’s Artificial Intelligence for Food Security project focuses on the promises and risks of AI-enabled technologies for global food security. This project is made possible through generous support from Google.org. What if we could see… -
Artificial Intelligence Stocks To Research – October 22ndHut 8, Tempus AI, SentinelOne, Appian, and Upstart are the five Artificial Intelligence stocks to watch today, according to MarketBeat’s stock screener tool. Artificial intelligence stocks are shares of publicly traded companies that…
Related markets
All ai ›Which company has the best AI model end of October?
90%Google
- Google90%▲ 4
- Anthropic8%▼ 3
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%▼ 1
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
70%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3170%▲ 3
- October 2715%▲ 1
- October 294%▼ 2
11 more
- October 264%
- October 283%
- October 312%▲ 1
- October 301%▼ 2
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 251%▼ 2
- October 241%
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Nov 19, 2026even chance by
- October 21<1%▼ 12
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 241%
2 more
- October 3130%▼ 2
- December 3194%
Google market share this week (Google market share - Oct 19, 2026)
19.71%median
15.2%22.8%
Median 19.71%Middle half 19.61% – 19.99%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.