Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%chance
Install
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
The odds
5%Cuba
- Cuba5%
- Venezuela2%
- Canada2%
- Puerto Rico2%
- Greenland2%
- Guam1%
- District of Columbia1%
- Colombia<1%
How the odds have moved
Cuba: 5% on Oct 20, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuba | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 267.7K | |
| Venezuela | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $45.45 | 421.3K | |
| Canada | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $41.67 | 232.9K | |
| Puerto Rico | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $62.50 | 211.7K | |
| Greenland | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | 445.9K | |
| Guam | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | 83.7K | ||
| District of Columbia | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 124.6K | ||
| Colombia | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 96.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
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Tracking Trump: Trump rolls back Canada tariffs; Melania Trump’s peace deal; Hegseth bans insider trading; and moreBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Trump rolled back some… -
Trump: Tariffs have made us richPresident Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United States at a midterm campaign rally in Fort Myers, Fla. Trump: Tariffs have made us rich President Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United… -
Trump calls for Ilhan Omar's RESIGNATION'Lock her up!' chants erupt from the crowd at President Donald Trump's Iowa rally as he calls on Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar to resign from Congress. Trump calls for Ilhan Omar's RESIGNATION 'Lock her up!' chants erupt from the crowd at… -
Biden’s economy keeps messing up Trump’s message“You can’t blame the president when policies go wrong, and then say he’s not responsible if things are going right.” On Monday, former President Donald Trump claimed on Truth Social that voters were already enjoying a "TRUMP STOCK MARKET"… -
Melania Trump adviser shares INSIDE LOOK at ceasefire agreementMarc Beckman, a senior advisor to Melania Trump, joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss the first lady's humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Melania Trump adviser shares INSIDE LOOK at ceasefire agreement Marc Beckman, a senior advisor to… -
Trump spars with reporter on Ramaswamy adPresident Trump sparred with a reporter over a controversial campaign ad from Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign featuring the estranged mother of opponent Amy Acton. Trump spars with reporter on Ramaswamy ad President… -
Trump Asked Google To Rename Atlantic Ocean ‘Trump Ocean’Oct 22, 2026 at 04:59 AM EDT Oct 22, 2026 at 06:17 AM EDT President Donald Trump has claimed he spoke to Google about renaming a body of water after himself, saying the technology company rejected the idea because oceans border multiple… -
BREAKING: Melania Trump secures localized Ukraine ceasefireFirst lady Melania Trump announces she has personally secured a localized ceasefire in the city of Oleshky in southern Ukraine, allowing humanitarian aid to enter and civilians to evacuate safely. BREAKING: Melania Trump secures localized… -
Trump defends Ramaswamy ad despite bipartisan backlashCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Trump defends… -
Trump GOES AFTER Ilhan Omar at rallyPresident Donald Trump mocks Rep. Ilhan Omar's "not to my knowledge" response when asked whether she was related to her former husband, bringing up the viral exchange during his campaign rally in Iowa ... Trump GOES AFTER Ilhan Omar at… -
Jesse Watters: Love was in the air for Trump in FloridaFox News host Jesse Watters discusses President Donald Trump’s midterm blitz on ‘Jesse Watters Primetime.’ ... Jesse Watters: Love was in the air for Trump in Florida Fox News host Jesse Watters discusses President Donald Trump’s midterm… -
Democrats face crack-up on Trump’s tariffsTrump’s aggressive — and unpopular — use of tariffs in his second term has created an opening for more trade-friendly voices in the party, after a decade in the political wilderness. Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate Abdul El-Sayed speaks…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.