How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
3.90median
213
Median 3.90Middle half 3.39 – 4.48
Install
How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
The odds
4.53median
0.5010.5
Median 4.53Middle half 3.89 – 5.10
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.58 on Oct 20, 4.53 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or below | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 4.6K |
| 2 | 1% | 3¢ | $33.33 | 4.0K | ||
| 3 | 6% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 5.7K |
| 4 | 39% | ▲ 1 | 40¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 12.3K |
| 5 | 44% | ▲ 2 | 44¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 18.5K |
| 6 | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 15.4K | |
| 7 | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 7.5K | |
| 8 | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.0K | |
| 9 | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K | |
| 10 or above | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Starship, SpaceX, SpaceX Starship
Search ›- NASA Confirms SpaceX's Starship Refueling Estimate! [17:21]NASA Confirms SpaceX's Starship Refueling Estimate! | 17:21 Ellie in Space | 232K subscribers | 1,683 views | October 23, 2026 Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794 Thank you very much and God bless you. If you…
-
SpaceX Starship Flight 15 Plans to Catch Ship, Super HeavySpaceX has been steadily building toward a milestone that would close the full reuse loop on the world's largest rocket, and the next test flight appears set to be the most ambitious yet. The company has now laid out what it is targeting… - What SpaceX Just Revealed About Starship Is Incredible!This video, hosted by Marcus House, covers a packed week of space news with a primary focus on SpaceX's Starship program and other aerospace developments. Starship and SpaceX Updates: Flight 14 Recap: The video highlights Flight 14, noting…
-
Starship Lunar Lander to Be Tested by NASA During Artemis III, Spacecraft Comes with No Crew CabinAt the end of last week, American space agency NASA announced the latest details of the Artemis III effort, giving us a clearer idea of how four astronauts (Randy Bresnik, Frank Rubio, Andre Douglas, and Luca Parmitano) and their Orion… -
Why would Musk merge SpaceX and Tesla?Elon Musk said Tuesday that a merger of his two companies SpaceX and Tesla would be "a good idea" and that they had formed special committees to discuss a union, sending shares of the space and technology company up 8% in extended… -
SpaceX Starship Flies First Revenue Mission, Deploys 26 Starlink V3 SatsSpaceX crossed a milestone it has been building toward for years: on September 28, 2026, Starship flew its first revenue-generating mission, delivering 26 Starlink V3 satellites to orbit. The achievement — confirmed in SpaceX's Q3 2026… -
NASA says Artemis program adjustments improve shot at 2028 moon landingUpdated on: October 23, 2026 / 8:05 PM EDT / CBS News NASA is pressing ahead with Artemis moon program revisions to give the agency its best shot at a lunar landing in 2028 using a lander built by either Elon Musk's SpaceX or Jeff Bezos'… -
SpaceX will try catching Starship and its booster for first time, Musk saysSpaceX CEO Elon Musk said the company would attempt to catch Starship and its booster next month, with the goal of recovering the entire orbital launch system for the first time. If successful, Musk said, the attempt would mark the first… -
Buy Tesla ahead of potential SpaceX merger, says BarclaysA potential merger with SpaceX makes Tesla a buy, according to Barclays. The bank upgraded the electric vehicle stock to overweight from equal weight. It also hiked its price target to $450 from $370, ... -
US military gives Elon Musk’s SpaceX access to sensitive tracking dataThis gives the company an advantage in tracking objects in orbit, raising national security concerns and fears of greater control over the space industry The US military has given Elon Musk’s SpaceX access to restricted space tracking… -
SpaceX coverage network designs draw Wall Street's eye. Here's what analysts thinkFollowing news that SpaceX is in talks to access as many as 80,000 cell sites to grab market share from the Big Three telecoms, some analysts on Wall Street are making a key distinction that may shed ... -
NASA lays out plan for Artemis 3 moon-lander test flight — but when will it launch?The agency just gave us a detailed look at the crucial docking test. But it's unclear exactly when it will take flight. NASA just gave us our best look yet at its Artemis III moon-lander test flight. The agency laid out a detailed concept…
Related markets
All space ›Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
Jun 18, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202613%
- January 31, 202725%▲ 1
- February 28, 202728%
2 more
- June 30, 202753%▼ 5
- December 31, 202763%▲ 1
Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 26, 2026 (Vercel)
5.99%median
3.2%7.4%
Median 5.99%Middle half 5.27% – 6.71%
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? (Before 2027)
24%Before Jan 20, 2029
- Before Jan 20, 202924%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202814%
- Before Jan 1, 20275%
2 more
- Before Dec 1, 20264%▲ 1
- Before Nov 1, 20262%▲ 1
How many launches will SpaceX have in October? (Oct 2026)
10.4median
517
Median 10.4Middle half 10.1 – 10.7
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
72%November 30, 2026
- November 30, 202672%▼ 2
- Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?57%▼ 9
- Chopsticks catch Starship?45%▼ 9
4 more
- Super Heavy booster explodes?40%▼ 4
- November 15, 202628%▲ 8
- Successful splash down?26%▲ 1
- October 31, 2026<1%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions