Google market share this week (Google market share - Oct 19, 2026)
20.4%median
15.2%22.8%
Median 20.4%Middle half 20.19% – 20.61%
Install
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement? (Before Jan 1, 2029)
The odds
Dec 28, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202713%
- Before Jan 1, 202851%
- Before Jan 1, 202971%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 17% on Oct 19, 13% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 13% | 11¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 1.6K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 51% | 48¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 118 | |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 71% | 66¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 23.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, Anthropic
Search ›-
OpenAI, Anthropic, and Nvidia had record lobbying quartersIt was a busy summer for AI lobbyists. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Nvidia each had their highest-spending lobbying quarter between July and September, federal disclosures show. Nvidia spent the most of the group at $2.2 million, followed by… -
Wall Street urging Anthropic, OpenAI to do their IPOs this year ‘before things get crazy’ — here’s whyWall Street is telling Anthropic and OpenAI that they had better launch their blockbuster IPOs sooner rather than later – and it goes well beyond the risks of an AI bubble, On The Money has learned. The mounting worry among big investors… -
Alex Kantrowitz: Google, Anthropic, OpenAI will be looking for ways to fund the backbone of AICNBC Alex Kantrowitz: Google, Anthropic, OpenAI will be looking for ways to fund the backbone of AI -
UK funds £100m AI biosecurity lab with OpenAI and AnthropicThe two AI companies will add up to £200m in credits and model access, ahead of Wednesday’s Budget. The UK government will put £100m into a new AI Biosecurity Lab, which will use advanced AI to spot and respond to biological threats… -
OpenAI and Anthropic spend limits per user in Next.jsNext.js · AI costs · 2026-10-17 You add an AI feature to your Next.js app, and the route works. Then one account, or one script, calls it a few thousand times overnight, and your OpenAI or Anthropic bill shows it the next morning. Most… -
Chatbot AI Service Comparison: OpenAI ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini (for CRM Actions)Short answer: Choose OpenAI ChatGPT for dynamic casual dialogue, Claude for explainable complex reasoning, and Gemini when minimal-response latency dominates; keep all three behind one CRM action contract. The boundary is simple: the model… -
What OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral and Meta actually ask in AI engineer interviewsPrepping for an AI engineering interview usually looks like this: twelve tabs of Glassdoor, a Reddit thread from 2023, three YouTube videos, a half-read paper, and no idea what this specific company will actually ask. So I went through 270… -
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool… -
Texas Sues OpenAI, Altman Over ChatGPT Safety ClaimsThe Texas attorney general's office sued OpenAI and its chief executive Sam Altman in state court Friday, alleging the company breached consumer protection laws by unleashing a chatbot that often gives harmful advice and is addictive to… -
UK Establishes AI Biosecurity Lab Backed by OpenAI and AnthropicThe UK government is establishing the AI Biosecurity Lab, backed by £100 million of government funding and up to £200 million in company commitments from OpenAI and Anthropic, the Cabinet Office announced on October 24, 2026. The… -
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues ChatGPT-maker OpenAITEXAS (The Texas Tribune) - Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, for allegedly deceiving and harming Texans. This is the latest in a flurry of lawsuits filed against Big Tech companies and private corporations… -
Prompt caching not working? Check it in OpenAI and Anthropic (Next.js)Next.js · AI costs · 2026-10-17 This guide pairs with Spend Caps Kit, and if you want the next step, read OpenAI and Anthropic spend limits per user in Next.js. Everything here is for a Next.js App Router route using the Vercel AI SDK (ai…
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All ai ›OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Nov 13, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202614%▼ 2
- December 31, 202756%▼ 4
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
69%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3169%
- October 2718%▲ 7
- October 295%▼ 1
11 more
- October 264%▲ 2
- October 283%▼ 1
- October 301%
- October 311%▼ 2
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%▼ 1
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
90%Google
- Google90%
- Anthropic8%▼ 1
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
49%Anthropic
- Anthropic49%
- Google38%▼ 2
- OpenAI6%
12 more
- xAI2%▲ 1
- Meta2%
- Alibaba1%
- Moonshot1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions