Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
24%December 31, 2029
- December 31, 202710%
- December 31, 202817%▼ 1
- December 31, 202924%
Install
When will P vs NP be resolved? (Before 2032)
The odds
44%Before 2040
- Before 204044%▼ 1
- Before 203535%▼ 1
- Before 202923%▼ 1
- Before 203023%▼ 1
- Before 202817%▼ 1
- Before 20277%
How the odds have moved
Before 2040: 44% on Oct 19, 44% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2040 | 44% | ▼ 1 | 39¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | |
| Before 2035 | 35% | ▼ 1 | 31¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 2.00 |
| Before 2029 | 23% | ▼ 1 | 18¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | |
| Before 2030 | 23% | ▼ 1 | 18¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 458 |
| Before 2028 | 17% | ▼ 1 | 12¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 1.00 |
| Before 2027 | 7% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Oct 27, 2026even chance by
- October 2119%▼ 23
- October 2228%▼ 31
- October 2441%▼ 37
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- October 3173%▼ 10
- December 3196%▼ 3
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
75%Google
- Google75%▲ 4
- Anthropic23%▼ 5
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.