Papua New Guinean parliamentary election winner? (2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jul 31, 2028 · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

66%Pangu

Pangu66%▼ 1
PNC11%
Our Pati8%
URP7%
SDP4%

How the odds have moved

Pangu: 66% on Oct 19, 66% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays
Pangu	66%	▼ 1	62¢	69¢	$1.45
PNC	11%		7¢	15¢	$6.67
Our Pati	8%		4¢	12¢	$8.33
URP	7%		3¢	11¢	$9.09
SDP	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Papua New Guinean, Our Pati

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‘Cut the umbilical cord’: Bougainville’s bid to break away from Papua New Guinea faces reckoningthe Guardian · 5 days agoMPs in PNG to decide on ratifying a 2019 referendum in which Bougainvilleans voted overwhelmingly in favour of independence For decades, the distant island of Bougainville has fought for secession from Papua New Guinea, for a future as an…
Australian Public Diplomacy and a National Rugby League Team in Papua New GuineaThe Diplomat · 40 h agoThe soft power, social capital, and shared stories the sport will stimulate are difficult to measure, but invariably will enhance the quality of the bilateral relationship. Underscoring the Australian Federal Government’s commitment of…
Memorandum of understanding between the Government of Australia and the Government of the Independent State of Papua New Guinea on a Comprehensive, Critical Technology and Telecommunications Partnershipdfat.gov.au · 5 days agoWhere and how Australia provides emergency assistance. Australia is a successful global leader and innovator in sport. Australia is a stable, democratic and culturally diverse nation with a highly skilled workforce and one of the strongest…
Bougainville scars acknowledged as Papua New Guinea MPs near big decisionRNZ · 5 days agoRNZ / News / Pacific Signs of the deep emotional scars from Bougainville's history have surfaced in Papua New Guinea's parliament as it debates whether to approve independence for the autonomous region. The national parliament has the…
Australia and Papua New Guinea set out health programmes and ADF recruitment pilotLondon Daily News · 6 days agoAustralia and Papua New Guinea have announced a ten-year primary healthcare programme, extra support for the national HPV vaccine rollout and a pilot pathway for Papua New Guineans to join the Australian Defence Force (ADF), following…
Press conference, Australia-Papua New Guinea Ministerial Forumforeignminister.gov.au · 6 days agoSenator the Hon Penny Wong Journalist: PNG has one of the most expensive telecommunications [inaudible] Journalist: PNG’s parliament is expected to take a vote on whether to grant Bougainville independence. If that vote doesn’t go in…
Australia-Papua New Guinea Ministerial Forumforeignminister.gov.au · 7 days agoSenator the Hon Penny Wong The Hon Richard Marles MP, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister For Defence The Australia-Papua New Guinea Ministerial Forum will take place in Port Moresby today, bringing ministers together to advance our shared…
Australian Defence Force opens recruitment to Papua New GuineansThe National Tribune · 7 days agoFollowing the historic signing of the Papua New Guinea-Australia Mutual Defence Treaty, known as the Pukpuk Treaty on 6 October 2025, today we announce that from next month eligible Papua New Guineans will be able to apply to join the…
Doorstop, Australia-Papua New Guinea Ministerial Forumforeignminister.gov.au · 7 days agoSenator the Hon Penny Wong Marian Faa, ABC News: Marian Faa, ABC News. As it's been mentioned, the major part of the Pukpuk Treaty is the military recruitment piece. How many Papua New Guineans is Australia aiming to recruit into the ADF…
Australia to open Australian Defence Force recruitment to students from Papua New Guinea — ABC News AustraliaUA.NEWS · 6 days agoFrom November 16, Australia will open recruitment to the Australian Defence Force (ADF) for students from Papua New Guinea. The $65 million program was announced during a meeting of Australian and Papua New Guinean ministers in Port…
Defence Force opens recruitment to Papua New Guineans in major bilateral dealnews.com.au · 7 days agoCitizens from one Australia’s closest allies will soon be able to join the ADF, as Canberra pushes to bolster the military’s ranks. Up to 100 Papua New Guineans will be able join the Australian Defence Force over the next two years under a…
Notorious South Pacific con man Noah Musingku dies in Papua New GuineaSSBCrack News · 7 days agoAt SSBCrack News, our dedicated editorial team brings you the latest and most reliable updates on Defence, Geopolitics, Military Affairs, Science, and Technology. Driven by a passion for national security and strategic awareness, the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onPapua New Guinea Electoral Commission

Trading closesJul 31, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Pangu wins the 2027 Papua New Guinean general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions