When will CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D? (Before Jan 20, 2029)

Kalshi Health › Public health Closes Jan 19, 2029 · $4.6K traded · $958 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

50%Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 1, 20275%
Before Jan 1, 202834%
Before Jan 20, 202950%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027	5%	3¢	6¢	$16.67	12.3K
Before Jan 1, 2028	34%	33¢	35¢	$2.86	3.2K
Before Jan 20, 2029	50%	49¢	50¢	$2.00	5.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Part D

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onthe Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the Federal Register

Trading closesJan 19, 2029 11:59 PM ET

Traded$4.6K (21,458 contracts)

This week$4.6K

At stake$958

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If CMS announces the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.