What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?
94,077median
84,000102,000
Median 94,077Middle half 90,000 – 98,077
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How many new housing units will NYC permit in 2026?
The odds
26,500median
20,00044,000
Median 26,500Middle half 23,273 – 29,000
How the odds have moved
Median: 26,508 on Oct 19, 26,500 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 23,000 | 77% | 72¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 1.00 | |
| Above 26,000 | 55% | 50¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 25.00 | |
| Above 29,000 | 25% | 20¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | ||
| Above 32,000 | 5% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | |
| Above 35,000 | 5% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | |
| Above 38,000 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | |
| Above 41,000 | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 3.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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All states & cities ›What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026?
8.27median
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Median 8.27Middle half 8.13 – 8.42
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34,971median
34,00036,000
Median 34,971Middle half 34,625 – 35,346
Manhattan congestion-zone vehicle entries in 2026?
171.95Mmedian
165.00M195.00M
Median 171.95M
How many 2-K seats will NYC make available for 2027–28?
11,615median
2,00018,000
Median 11,615Middle half 10,333 – 14,500
Single adult NYC homeless shelter average stay in FY2027? (for Fiscal Year 2027 (July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027))
362.4median
250500
Median 362.4Middle half 351.9 – 372.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.