What will NYC’s average weekday bus speed be in December 2026?

Kalshi Politics › States & cities Closes Feb 1, 2027 · $70 traded · $70 at stake · prices read 4 h ago

The odds

8.25median

7.908.60

Median 8.25Middle half 8.11 – 8.39

How the odds have moved

Median: 8.25 on Oct 19, 8.25 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
At least 8 mph	90%	▼ 1	85¢	94¢	$1.06
At least 8.1 mph	77%	▼ 1	72¢	81¢	$1.23
At least 8.2 mph	65%	▼ 1	60¢	69¢	$1.45
At least 8.3 mph	34%	▼ 1	30¢	38¢	$2.63	205
At least 8.4 mph	24%	▼ 1	19¢	28¢	$3.57
At least 8.5 mph	12%	▼ 1	7¢	16¢	$6.25

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onMetropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA)

Trading closesFeb 1, 2027 9:59 AM ET

Traded$70 (205 contracts)

This week$70

At stake$70

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the MTA’s monthly key performance metric for overall citywide average weekday end-to-end route speed across New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company service is at least 8 mph for December 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.