Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
3%chance
Install
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?
The odds
40%No other person
- No other person40%
- Dan Driscoll19%▲ 1
- Steve Feinberg7%
- Joni Ernst6%
- Ron DeSantis6%
- Mike Waltz3%
- Mike Pompeo3%
- Mike Rogers3%
- Wesley Hunt3%
- Elbridge Colby3%
- Tom Cotton2%
- Trae Stephens1%
5 more
- Christopher Miller1%
- Bill Hagerty1%
- Mike Gallagher1%
- Keith Kellogg1%
- Tulsi Gabbard1%
How the odds have moved
No other person: 41% on Oct 20, 40% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No other person | 40% | 38¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 17.1K | |
| Dan Driscoll | 19% | ▲ 1 | 16¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 5.0K |
| Steve Feinberg | 7% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 1.0K | |
| Joni Ernst | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $10.87 | 1.0K | |
| Ron DeSantis | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 5.6K | |
| Mike Waltz | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $18.52 | 3.2K | |
| Mike Pompeo | 3% | 0¢ | 6¢ | $16.95 | 2.0K | |
| Mike Rogers | 3% | 0¢ | 6¢ | $16.95 | 435 | |
| Wesley Hunt | 3% | 0¢ | 5¢ | $19.23 | 1.2K | |
| Elbridge Colby | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.4K | ||
| Tom Cotton | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.9K | |
| Trae Stephens | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 27.00 | |
| Christopher Miller | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 494 | |
| Bill Hagerty | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 32.00 | |
| Mike Gallagher | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 170 | |
| Keith Kellogg | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 74.00 | ||
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 861 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Secretary of Defense, Dan Driscoll, Steve Feinberg
Search ›-
Secretary of Defense Hegseth brings ‘Arsenal of Freedom’ Tour to Dayton, Sierra NevadaSecretary of War Pete Hegseth visited Sierra Nevada Corporation at Dayton International Airport on Tuesday, Oct. 20. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth visited Dayton Tuesday, Oct. 20, to declare that those serving on the front line have… -
Secretary of Defense Set to Visit ECSecretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is set to travel to Eau Claire Tuesday. The Department of War says he’s visiting as part of the Arsenal of Freedom Tour. Secretary Hegseth will visit Riverside and deliver remarks to the workforce… -
In April 1949 the Navy Laid the Keel of USS United States, a 65,000-Ton Supercarrier Built to Launch Nuclear Bombers, and 5 Days Later the Secretary of Defense Canceled It. The Admirals RevoltedIn 1949 the Navy laid the keel of USS United States, a 65,000-ton supercarrier. Five days later Defense Secretary Louis Johnson canceled it in favor of the Air Force’s 10-engine B-36, the Navy Secretary resigned, and the admirals took the… -
Secretary of Defense Hegseth to visit Dayton’s fastest growing defense company todaySecretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is scheduled to visit Sierra Nevada’s Aviation Innovation and Technology Center today, Oct. 20, at Dayton International Airport. The event is part of Hegseth’s “Arsenal of Freedom” tour and will feature a… -
US Secretary of Defense meets Netanyahu in an unannounced visit to the occupationجريدة القدس Tue 20 Oct 2026 6:19 am - Jerusalem Time US Secretary of Defense meets Netanyahu in an unannounced visit to the occupation Informed sources revealed that a meeting took place between US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and the… -
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to visit Wisconsin on TuesdaySecretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will travel Tuesday to Dayton, Ohio, and Eau Claire, Wisconsin ... Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to visit Wisconsin on Tuesday Evers says delay in corrections plan could cost taxpayers 80% more Green… -
‘Arsenal of Freedom Tour’ bringing Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to WisconsinEAU CLAIRE, Wis. (WFRV) - Pete Hegseth, the United States Secretary of Defense, is set to visit Wisconsin on Tuesday as part of the 'Arsenal of Freedom Tour.' According to a release from the US Department of War, Secretary Hegseth will… -
Sen. Thom Tillis talks about the challenges of being in Congress during Trump's second termCNN Sen. Thom Tillis talks about the challenges of being in Congress during Trump’s second term In his new book, "How to Lose Friends and Antagonize Presidents," GOP Sen. Thom Tillis calls voting to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of… -
Pentagon creates agency for technological sabotage in foreign countries — PoliticoWASHINGTON, October 22. /TASS/. An agency tasked with technological sabotage in foreign countries has been created within the US Department of Defense, the Politico newspaper wrote. "The Pentagon has spent months quietly building an elite… -
Secretary of Defense Surely Impressed by Volunteer Defense in Win Over TideLIVE -- Dobyns-Bennett vs West Ridge Announcing the Field at the 2026 Classic at Tennessee High Tennessee vs Kennesaw State Highlights Tennessee vs Georgia Tech Game Highlights Dobyns-Bennett vs Oak Ridge - September 11, 2026 I & TRI… - Midterms and Iran: Congress could change hands, but Trump would still control the warBrett McGurk is a CNN global affairs analyst who served in senior national security positions under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.The reviews were not kind. On January 10, 2007, President George W…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.