How many Central Pacific named storms will there be this year? (Central Pacific in 2026)
6.75median
58
Median 6.75
Install
How many Eastern Pacific named storms will there be this year? (Eastern Pacific in 2026)
The odds
21.0median
1728
Median 21.0Middle half 20 – 22.1
How the odds have moved
Median: 19.9 on Oct 20, 21.0 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above 16 | 99% | $1.01 | 364 | |||
| ✓ Above 17 | 99% | $1.01 | 275 | |||
| Above 18 | 100% | 99¢ | 1.6K | |||
| Above 19 | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 1.6K | ||
| Above 20 | 75% | ▲ 9 | 71¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 667 |
| Above 22 | 26% | ▲ 11 | 22¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 710 |
| Above 24 | 6% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 309 |
| Above 26 | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 252 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: hurricane, tropical storm, Eastern Pacific
Search ›- Eastern Pacific reaches 21 named storms for the first time since 2018 as Tropical Storm Vance strengthensSatellite image Tropical Storm Vance at 18:20 UTC on October 22, 2026. Credit: NOAA/GOES-19, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers At 15:00 UTC (09:00 LT) on October 22, the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located approximately 810 km (505 miles)…
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Tropical Storm Vance forms in eastern Pacific as hurricane season reaches rare milestone not seen since 2018Tropical Storm Vance formed in the Pacific, marking the first V-named storm in the eastern Pacific since 2018. The system has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1,003 mb. The active Pacific continues to churn out… -
Tropical storm Champi bringing heavy rain to western JapanTropical storm Champi is moving northeast over the East China Sea. Atmospheric conditions are very unstable in western and eastern Japan, as warm and damp air around the storm flows into a front stretching near the main island of Honshu… -
Tropical Storm Champi: Japan's Kyushu braces for landfall after storm sweeps past southwest regionJapan's Kyushu region is bracing for Tropical Storm Champi's landfall, as it sweeps past the nation's southwestern islands, leaving a trail of destruction. Authorities warn of more heavy rain, violent winds and storm surges, along with… -
Tropical Storm Vance forms in eastern Pacific, to approach southwest Mexico Coast as a major hurricaneFollowing Polo, Simon, Rachel and Trudy, forecasters are tracking a new storm that could evolve into a major hurricane as it tracks toward Mexico. Published Oct 19, 2026 1:28 PM EDT | Updated Oct 21, 2026 5:16 PM EDT Satellite imagery from… -
TS Vance Strengthens over Eastern PacificTropical Storm Vance is strengthening in the eastern Pacific and could threaten the coast of Mexico by next Tuesday. Vance is located near 9.7N, 101.0W, moving slowly northwest at about 3 knots. Max winds are about 50 knots with… -
Tropical Storm Champi nears mainland China after battering Taiwan, JapanA powerful storm swept towards mainland China on Saturday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights. Typhoon Champi was… -
Vance to become 11th major eastern Pacific hurricane this season. Will it turn toward Mexico?Vance is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane, with a dangerous landfall in Mexico possible as one scenario. A separate storm in the tropical Pacific could bring rain to Hawaii in late October. Published Oct 22, 2026 12:32… - Tropical Storm Champi nears China after battering Taiwan, JapanA powerful storm swept towards China yesterday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of ... Choose a section, type your search topic…
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Tropical Storm In-Fa 'looking like a northern CNMI storm,' could become CAT 4 typhoonCurrently, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts In-Fa to possibly reach the northern Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands by morning Oct. 30, 2026 as a Category 3 typhoon. In-Fa is located 280 miles northwest of Kwajalein… -
Tropical Storm Vance could intensify into a major hurricane, while Champi threatens Taiwan and JapanTropical Storm Vance is expected to strengthen into the 13th hurricane in the Pacific Basin this season as it approaches Mexico next week. Vance could intensify into a major hurricane, which would be the basin's 10th Category 3 or stronger… -
Los Cabos Will Keep Eye On Tropical Storm Vance As Hurricane Season Begins To Wind DownIf you are planning a trip to Los Cabos as the winter approaches, you might have thought you were completely in the clear when it comes to tropical weather. Traditionally, late October marks the point where the Pacific hurricane season…
Related markets
All hurricanes & storms ›Hurricane Vance category?
5%Category 4 or above
36
How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? (Eastern Pacific in 2026)
7.65median
59
Median 7.65Middle half 7.31 – 7.99
Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026?
47%Above 10
835
How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
13%Above 1
08
Hurricane Hanna category?
1%Category 1 or above
06
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions