What named storms will be hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific this year? (Eastern Pacific in 2026)
100%Vance
- Vance100%
- Winnie76%▲ 44
- Zeke39%▲ 34
8 more
- Yolanda13%▲ 6
- Xavier8%▼ 5
- Lowell4%
- Douglas1%
- Elida1%
- Iselle1%
- Julio1%
- Norbert1%
Install
Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026?
The odds
46%Above 10
835
How the odds have moved
Above 10: 34% on Oct 20, 46% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETAbove 10: 37% → 47%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10 | 46% | ▲ 1 | 45¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 23.7K |
| Above 12 | 8% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 7.3K |
| Above 14 | 4% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 8.4K | |
| Above 16 | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 8.1K | |
| Above 18 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 10.3K | ||
| Above 20 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 659 | ||
| Above 25 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 216 | ||
| Above 30 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 829 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: hurricane, tropical storm, Atlantic
Search ›-
Storm Josephine spins out in Atlantic, Tropical Storm Vance heads to MexicoThe forecast track of Subtropical Storm Josephine shows it heading out into the North Atlantic Ocean as an extratropical storm over the next few days. Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and approach the west… -
Tropical Storm Vance could intensify into a major hurricane, while Champi threatens Taiwan and JapanTropical Storm Vance is expected to strengthen into the 13th hurricane in the Pacific Basin this season as it approaches Mexico next week. Vance could intensify into a major hurricane, which would be the basin's 10th Category 3 or stronger… -
Tropical Storm Vance forms in the Pacific as hurricane season continuesWatch Tropical Storm Vance forms in the Pacific as hurricane season continues - FWX FOX One FWX · Aired Today · 1m 1s Tropical Storm Vance formed in the Pacific, marking the first V-named storm in the eastern Pacific since 2018. The system… -
Los Cabos Will Keep Eye On Tropical Storm Vance As Hurricane Season Begins To Wind DownIf you are planning a trip to Los Cabos as the winter approaches, you might have thought you were completely in the clear when it comes to tropical weather. Traditionally, late October marks the point where the Pacific hurricane season… - Tropical Storm Vance Expected To Become Major Hurricane Near Mexico700WLW Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to intensify rapidly and could become a major hurricane as it approaches the southwestern coast of Mexico next week. As of Thursday (October 22), Vance was located about 500 miles south of Acapulco…
- Josephine is the newest named storm in the Atlantic, but not as a tropical stormWBRZ Josephine is the newest named storm in the Atlantic, but not as a tropical storm Josephine, the 10th named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, has formed off the East Coast. While top wind speeds match those of a tropical…
-
Tropical Storm Vance has formed in the Pacific OceanArab Times Kuwait News Tropical Storm Vance has formed in the Pacific Ocean Vance was located about 520 miles (835 kilometers) south of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were around 40 mph (65 kph), according to an advisory from… -
Tropical Storm Vance forms in eastern Pacific as hurricane season reaches rare milestone not seen since 2018Tropical Storm Vance formed in the Pacific, marking the first V-named storm in the eastern Pacific since 2018. The system has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1,003 mb. The active Pacific continues to churn out… -
Tropical Storm Vance forms near Mexico. Will it affect Texas?From there, some weather models show that moisture from Vance could move into parts of South Texas, bringing enhanced rain chances to places like the Rio Grande Valley, San Antonio, and Corpus Christi. Exactly when could that happen?… -
Tropical Storm Vance forms in eastern Pacific, to approach southwest Mexico Coast as a major hurricaneFollowing Polo, Simon, Rachel and Trudy, forecasters are tracking a new storm that could evolve into a major hurricane as it tracks toward Mexico. Published Oct 19, 2026 1:28 PM EDT | Updated Oct 21, 2026 5:16 PM EDT Satellite imagery from… -
Tropical Storm Vance forms in the Pacific OceanMIAMI (TNND) — Tropical Storm Vance formed in the eastern Pacific on Wednesday and was forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday while remaining far from land, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Vance was centered… -
Subtropical storm formation possible in the Atlantic, how does it differ from a tropical storm?(PINPOINT WEATHER) -- The nor'easter continues to crank along the coast, causing coastal flooding and beach erosion. While the nor'easter moves farther away from the coast and more into the open waters of the Atlantic, there is a chance it…
Related markets
All hurricanes & storms ›Hurricane Vance category?
7%Category 4 or above
36
How many Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? (Eastern Pacific in 2026)
9.89median
714
Median 9.89Middle half 9.44 – 10.7
Atlantic Tropical Storms (Dec 2026)
10.2median
818
Median 10.2Middle half 9.38 – 11.4
Hurricane Lala category?
4.46median
06
Median 4.46Middle half 4.17 – 4.75
How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? (Eastern Pacific in 2026)
7.63median
59
Median 7.63
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.