Hurricane Lala category?
4.46median
06
Median 4.46Middle half 4.18 – 4.75
Install
Hurricane Vance category?
The odds
6%Category 4 or above
36
How the odds have moved
Category 4 or above: 27% on Oct 23, 6% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Category 1 or above | 99% | ▼ 1 | $1.01 | 50.00 | ||
| ✓ Category 2 or above | 99% | ▲ 2 | $1.01 | 1.4K | ||
| ✓ Category 3 or above | 12% | ▼ 67 | $8.33 | 8.2K | ||
| Category 4 or above | 6% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 7.2K |
| Category 5 or above | 4% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | $14.29 | 734 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: hurricane, tropical storm, Hurricane Vance
Search ›-
Next tropical storm could form off East Coast before heading out to seaFOX 13 Meteorologist Dave Osterberg says Wednesday will be mostly sunny, breezy and nice with a high temperature of 83 degrees. TAMPA, Fla. - A low-pressure system churning off the East Coast has a 40% chance of developing into Subtropical… - DO NOT APPROVE - Josephine is named in the Atlantic, but not as a tropical stormJosephine, the tenth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, has formed off the East Coast. While its maximum sustained winds of XXX mph match those of a tropical storm, Josephine is classified as a subtropical storm. Ooops…
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Weather System Off North Carolina Could Become Nor’Easter or Tropical Storm: What to KnowThe National Weather Service and its National Hurricane Center are tracking a storm system sitting off the coast of North Carolina that has the opportunity to become either a proper Nor’easter or a Tropical Storm and is setting up either… -
Tropical Storm Rachel pushes ocean birds into UtahSALT LAKE CITY — Tropical Storm Rachel brought an unprecedented group of seabirds to Utah, giving birdwatchers across the state a first-of-its-kind opportunity to spot a species normally found far from shore. In the storm's wake, birders… -
Hurricane Trudy menaces Mexico’s Pacific coast and Greece hit by deadly floodsTrudy weakens to tropical storm after warnings of strong winds and heavy rain, while one person killed in GreeceIn contrast to the quiet Atlantic hurricane season, the Pacific has seen continued activity, with Trudy the 22nd and latest… -
Hurricane Trudy Threatens Mexico With Life-Threatening Flooding, MudslidesOct 18, 2026 at 12:53 PM EDT Hurricane Trudy continued to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to southwestern and west-central Mexico on Sunday, with forecasters warning that the storm could cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides in… -
Hurricane season maps tracker: Cones, water temperatures and moreWe have the maps you need to track all the systems ongoing in the Pacific and Atlantic below. These are areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, which are shown in purple. High wind shear is… -
Hurricane Trudy brings heavy rain and strong winds to Mexico’s Pacific coastMIAMI — Hurricane Trudy lashed parts of Mexico’s Pacific coast with heavy rain and strong winds Sunday as the U.S. National Hurricane Center warned of potentially life-threatening flooding and mudslides. A hurricane warning remained in… -
Hurricane Trudy may bring "life-threatening" flooding, mudslides to Mexico's Pacific coastOctober 18, 2026 / 8:12 AM EDT / CBS/AP Hurricane Trudy brought heavy rain and powerful winds to parts of Mexico's Pacific coast on Sunday, impacting sections of the country's western and southwestern states that were already targeted by… -
Tropical Storm Rachel Leaves A Big Mark(Alta, UT) -- Tropical Storm Rachel is gone but the totals are just now being added up. Some parts of the Wasatch Mountains recorded over seven inches of rain. It was a similar number for the Pine Valley Mountains in southwestern Utah. All… -
Hurricane Trudy strengthens to Category 2 — moves toward west-central Mexican Pacific coastHurricane Trudy strengthened to a Category 2 as it moved toward Mexico’s west-central Pacific coast on Saturday, according to officials. A warning remained in effect from Manzanillo in Colima state to Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco on Saturday… -
Hurricane Trudy strengthens to category 2 as it heads toward MexicoHurricane warning in effect from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes as storm moves toward Pacific coast Trudy strengthened to a category 2 hurricane as it moved toward Mexico’s south-western and west-central Pacific coast on Saturday, the US…
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Hurricane Nana category?
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Hurricane Nolo category?
4.52median
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions