Google market share this week (Google market share - Oct 19, 2026)
20.02%median
15.2%22.8%
Median 20.02%Middle half 19.88% – 20.36%
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Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? (Before 2027)
The odds
19%Claude
- Claude19%
- Gemini14%
- ChatGPT7%
- Grok2%
- Qwen1%
- Kimi1%
- Ernie1%
- Other1%
How the odds have moved
Claude: 21% on Oct 20, 19% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 19% | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 79.0K | |
| Gemini | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 35.1K | |
| ChatGPT | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 41.7K | |
| Grok | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 22.5K | |
| Qwen | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 5.8K | ||
| Kimi | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 3.1K | ||
| Ernie | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 1.9K | ||
| Other | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 20.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Text Arena
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
Dec 7, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202614%▼ 2
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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
65%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3165%▼ 11
- October 2719%▲ 7
- October 265%▲ 2
11 more
- October 294%▼ 2
- October 283%▼ 1
- October 312%▲ 1
- October 301%
- October 251%▲ 1
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Nov 16, 2026even chance by
- October 21<1%▼ 12
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 24<1%
2 more
- October 3136%▲ 12
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.