Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
31%December 31
- June 30, 202731%▲ 4
- December 3131%▲ 1
Install
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?
The odds
21%chance▲ 3
How the odds have moved
Yes: 22% on Oct 20, 21% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | ▲ 3 | 19¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 8.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
Search ›-
President Trump, first lady Melania Trump cast early voting ballotsPresident Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump deliver remarks after casting their early voting ballots in West Palm Beach, Fla. President Trump, first lady Melania Trump cast early voting ballots President Donald Trump and first lady… -
President Trump and first lady Melania Trump vote early in West Palm BeachA hoarse-sounding President Trump and first lady Melania Trump voted early in West Palm Beach on Saturday – as Trump vowed to keep up the vigorous campaign schedule A hoarse-sounding President Trump cast his ballot alongside first lady… -
Tracking Trump: Trump rolls back Canada tariffs; Melania Trump’s peace deal; Hegseth bans insider trading; and moreBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Trump rolled back some… -
Obama Mocks Trump’s White House RenovationsOct 24, 2026 at 07:24 PM EDT Former President Barack Obama took several shots at President Donald Trump's focus on White House renovations during a rally in Ohio on Saturday, joking that Trump "should be on HGTV" and ridiculing reports of… -
Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout?Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout? Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' -
Trump casts early in-person ballot | CNN PoliticsPresident Donald Trump cast an early ballot at a polling station in South Florida on Saturday. Despite the president's previous attacks on various voting methods such as mail-in voting and early voting, Trump has urged Republican voters to… -
Obama slams Trump on campaign trail in OhioCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6pm CBS News New York CBS News Philadelphia 7:30pm KDKA News at 7 CBS13 News Weekend 5pm CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm -
Trump Renews Talks of Pardoning White House StaffOct 24, 2026 at 06:55 PM EDT President Donald Trump left the door open to pardons for White House staff and administration officials, telling reporters on Saturday that he would be "allowed" to grant them despite insisting he has not given… -
Trump: Tariffs have made us richPresident Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United States at a midterm campaign rally in Fort Myers, Fla. Trump: Tariffs have made us rich President Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United… -
Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire dealAl Jazeera Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire deal US President Donald Trump praised First Lady Melania Trump, saying she was ‘better than our professionals’ following her diplomatic efforts towards a localised… -
Trump administration moves to nix TSA union contract — againA prior attempt was halted by a federal judge. A badge is seen on the uniform of a TSA agent at a security checkpoint at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on Nov. 6 in SeaTac, Washington. | Lindsey Wasson/AP 12/12/2025 7:24 PM EST The… -
Trump votes early in West Palm Beach, criticizes DemocratsPresident Donald Trump cast his ballot for the midterm elections Saturday in West Palm Beach, accompanied by first lady Melania Trump. After voting, Trump criticized Democrats, accusing them of widespread corruption in several states and…
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All supreme court & courts ›Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
46%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar46%
- Cassidy Hutchinson29%▼ 1
- John Brennan22%
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan17%
- Anthony Fauci14%
- Fani Willis14%
- Jack Smith11%▼ 1
- Gustavo Petro11%▼ 1
- Lisa Cook10%
- James Clapper10%
- Andrew Weissmann10%
- Gavin Newsom10%
- Peter Strzok9%
- Hunter Biden9%
- Keith Ellison9%
- Tim Walz9%▼ 1
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom9%▲ 3
- Adam Schiff8%▼ 1
- Chris Krebs8%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor7%▲ 1
- Lisa Monaco7%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle7%
- Letitia James6%▼ 4
- Alvin Bragg6%▲ 2
- Jacob Frey6%▲ 1
- Mark Milley6%
- Elissa Slotkin6%
- Mark Kelly6%
- Liz Cheney6%
- Joe Kent6%
- Leon Black6%
- E. Jean Carroll6%
- Christopher Wray5%
- Chris Christie5%
- Tucker Carlson5%
- Reid Hoffman5%▲ 1
- George Soros5%
- Pam Bondi4%
- Jerome Powell4%▲ 1
- Hillary Clinton4%▼ 1
- Bill Clinton3%▼ 1
- Barack Obama3%
- Joe Biden3%
Who will be arrested in 2026?
34%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar34%▼ 8
- John Brennan22%▼ 1
- Mahmoud Khalil14%▲ 1
22 more
- Anthony Fauci9%
- Tom Homan9%▲ 3
- James Clapper8%▼ 1
- Letitia James8%
- Adam Schiff7%
- Lee Jae Myung6%▼ 1
- Lisa Cook6%
- Susan Rice6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu5%
- Candace Owens5%
- Lee Jun-seok5%
- Loretta Lynch4%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero4%▼ 1
- Bill Clinton4%
- Hillary Clinton4%
- Pam Bondi4%
- Gavin Newsom3%
- John Kerry3%
- Brandon Johnson3%
- Kash Patel3%
- Barack Obama3%
- Joe Biden3%
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?
23%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 20264%
- December 31, 202723%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
New Supreme Court justice confirmed? (Before Jan 21, 2029)
57%Before Jan 21, 2029
- Before Jan 21, 202957%
- Before 202842%▲ 1
- Before June 202719%
1 more
- Before 202717%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.