Nebraska corn yield in 2026
187.1median
165195
Median 187.1
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Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
The odds
2%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 3% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 80.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: recession
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Are we in a global whisky recession?Is demand for the water of life running dry? I’ve just returned from a trip to Islay in Scotland, which has more whisky distilleries per square mile than anywhere else in the UK, and several of its famous single malts are struggling… -
Cal State Fullerton Economists Predict Slow Job Growth, No RecessionThe U.S. economy is expected to avoid a recession in 2027, but Southern California will face sluggish job growth and persistent housing affordability problems, according to an economic forecast released Thursday by Cal State Fullerton… -
Explained: What GDP and a recession actually meanGross domestic product, or GDP, is the most common measure of the size of an economy. It adds up the value of all the final goods and services produced in a country over a period of time, from mining and farming to haircuts, software and… -
How to manage your stock market investments in a recession?Governments worldwide generally set policies to support steady economic growth. Western countries (including Canada and the U.S.) have been largely successful in achieving long-term growth but this growth isn’t constant. As a normal part… -
Argentina's August uptick is tiny as recession risks buildArgentina's monthly activity index barely grew in August, rising 0.1% from July and coming in well under the 1.5% gain economists expected. Compared with August last year, it contracted 1.7% against a flat 0.0% forecast, according to data… -
Walmart Stock Eyes Best Monthly Rally Since 2014: Is This an Early Recession Warning?When American households start to worry about money, they rarely stop shopping. They change where they shop. That is why investors watch Walmart Inc. WMT closely when the economy starts to slow. Walmart shares are up 13.9% so far in… -
U.S. would be growing more slowly without AI boom, but not in recessionThe artificial intelligence (AI) boom is helping support U.S. economic growth, but a recession would still be unlikely without it, according to a new analysis from the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO). In a… -
Matchmakers Are Beating the Dating RecessionCompact Mag America is in the midst of a dating recession. Almost two-thirds of young adults aren’t dating anyone seriously. But our friends stand apart. Nearly all of them are dating or happily married. It isn’t because they are uniquely… -
Trinidad Recession Denied by Prime MinisterTRINIDAD AND TOBAGO · ECONOMY The Trinidad recession debate reached Parliament on Monday 19 October 2026, when Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar rejected the claim. She said the country “is in progression” and pointed to International… -
A Recession Is Coming Eventually, and History Says There's a Major Silver Lining for InvestorsWhat will cause the next recession? Higher interest rates, a slowdown in the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out, or some economic crisis that's not on anyone's radar yet? No one knows for sure, but one thing is certain: A recession… -
1 ETF I'm Loading Up On Right Now -- Even if a Recession Is ComingThere's a saying I always like to keep in mind as I go through life: It's much better to be overprepared than underprepared. It applies to many areas of life, including your finances and investing. So, while there are no immediate signs of… - How Triumph Financial’s CEO Beat the Longest Freight RecessionTriumph Financial CEO Aaron Graft joins FreightWaves to discuss how his company achieved a remarkable 38% transportation revenue growth during one of the longest freight recessions in history. Discover the strategic investments in platform…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.