US government budget balance in 2026
-7.89%median
-9.5%-5.5%
Median -7.89%Middle half -8.85% – -7.64%
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Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
The odds
-1.77%median
-4%0%
Median -1.77%Middle half -2.14% – -1.33%
How the odds have moved
Median: -1.78% on Oct 20, -1.77% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -3.5% of GDP | 95% | 92¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 250 | |
| Above -3.0% of GDP | 92% | 89¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 250 | |
| Above -2.5% of GDP | 85% | 84¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 100 | |
| Above -2.0% of GDP | 71% | 61¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 275 | |
| Above -1.5% of GDP | 26% | 20¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 3.8K | |
| Above -1.0% of GDP | 23% | 11¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 4.7K | |
| Above -0.5% of GDP | 7% | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 6.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Japan
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Highlights: Japan 0-17 WalesWatch the highlights as Wales secure victory over Japan in Tokyo. Two tries from Seren Lockwood and one from Kelsey Jones earned the win for Sean Lynn's side. The teams will meet again on Saturday, 31 October (07:00 GMT). Up Next. Jones… -
Lockwood seals Wales win in JapanScrum-half Seren Lockwood scored two tries as Wales beat Japan 17-0 in Tokyo in the WXV Series. This victory also marked the first time since November 2018 that Wales have finished a match without conceding a point. Lockwood seals Wales… -
Cymru'n curo Japan yng Nghystadleuaeth y WXVCafodd Freya Bell ei chario oddi ar y cae gydag anaf yn yr ail hanner Ennill a wnaeth tîm rygbi merched Cymru yn Japan ddydd Sadwrn yng Nghystadleuaeth y WXV, gyda sgôr o 0-17. Seren Lockwood a Kelsey Jones sgoriodd y ceisiadau ac mi… -
Lockwood opens scoring for Wales in JapanScrum-half Seren Lockwood opened the scoring for Wales in Tokyo as they took a 7-0 lead into half-time against Japan in their WXV contest. Wales had an early try ruled out for obstruction before Lockwood's third international try gave… -
Wales grind out frustrating WXV win against JapanWales have claimed victory in all three Tests against Japan Tries: Lockwood 2, K Jones Con: Bell Wales ground out a win over Japan in tricky Tokyo conditions to secure a second victory of their WXV campaign. Swirling wind, rain and… -
New British number one Boulter loses Japan semi-finalKatie Boulter's last WTA title came at the Ostrava Open in February Katie Boulter has lost in the Japan Open semi-finals, in her first match since reclaiming the British number one spot from Sonny Kartal. Kartal moved above Boulter in the… -
Wales look to show top-six credentials in JapanWales have won their past two Test meetings with Japan Wales attempt to hold onto 11th place in World Rugby's rankings in Tokyo on Saturday, but head coach Sean Lynn has the top six in his sights. After the encouragement of September… -
Ryu Murakami Dies: Japanese Author Was 74The Japanese writer and filmmaker Ryu Murakami has died. He was 74. Murakami’s publisher, Gentosha, announced his death today in a lengthy statement on their website. “Author Ryu Murakami passed away at his home on October 17, 2026, at the… -
Ryu Murakami, cult Japanese author, dies aged 74The bestselling writer, known as Japan’s enfant terrible, explored the dark underbelly of Japanese society in more than 40 works of subversive fiction including Audition, later made into a landmark indie horror movie Ryu Murakami, the cult… -
Fielded is obsessed with scammers and unhinged Japanese cyberpunkSome Kind of Animal, the latest record from Fielded, jumps from slinky R&B, to neo-soul, to industrial funk. Lindsay Powell, who releases records under the name Fielded, has spent most of her career subverting expectations and genre… -
Japan's unpopular revision of Imperial law that reinforces male-only succession takes effectBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. TOKYO — Japan’s… -
Boulter into Japan semis and back as British No 1Katie Boulter is through to her third WTA semi-final of the 2026 season Katie Boulter has reclaimed the British number one ranking after fighting back to beat Antonia Ruzic in three sets in the quarter-finals of the Japan Open. The…
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All growth & recession ›China’s government budget balance in 2026
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Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
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France’s government budget balance in 2026
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United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
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Italy’s government budget balance in 2026
-2.8%median
-5%-1%
Median -2.8%Middle half -3.15% – -2.53%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions