US government budget balance in 2026
-7.89%median
-9.5%-5.5%
Median -7.89%Middle half -8.84% – -7.64%
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Italy’s government budget balance in 2026
The odds
-2.8%median
-5%-1%
Median -2.8%Middle half -3.15% – -2.53%
How the odds have moved
Median: -2.8% on Oct 19, -2.8% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -4.5% of GDP | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above -4.0% of GDP | 95% | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| Above -3.5% of GDP | 89% | 85¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 251 | |
| Above -3.0% of GDP | 69% | 65¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 1.00 | |
| Above -2.5% of GDP | 22% | 18¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | ||
| Above -2.0% of GDP | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| Above -1.5% of GDP | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Italy
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Italian-themed festival applies for Richmond eventA family-friendly Italian-themed festival could take place in south-west London in June. Sicilian-themed Marzamemi Festival has applied for a three-day event on Richmond Green from 25 June, offering live Italian music, banquets and food… -
Protesters clash with riot police in Turin, ItalyNBC News Protesters clash with riot police in Turin, Italy -
Lecce vs Juventus: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-headBBC Italian Serie A Scores & Fixtures Italian Serie A Table - Position 1, 2, 3, 4 : UEFA Champions League -
Lazio vs Parma: Italian Serie A - watch live coverageAttempt saved. El Bilal Touré (Parma) header from the centre of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Christos Mandas (Lazio). Assisted by Emanuele Valeri with a cross. Attempt missed. Mariano Troilo (Parma) header from the left… -
Italian police use a water cannon on protesters in RomeItalian police deployed a water cannon as officers faced off with protesters in Rome during demonstrations on Saturday evening. (Reuters.) ... Italian police use a water cannon on protesters in Rome Italian police deployed a water cannon… - Napoli vs Roma: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-headManager: Gian Piero Gasperini Second Half ends, Napoli 3, Roma 3. Foul by Wesley (Roma). Leonardo Spinazzola (Napoli) wins a free kick in the defensive half. Offside, Roma. Rodrigo Mora is caught offside. Attempt blocked. Sam Beukema…
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Naples, Italy: Inside a city bursting with energyThe birthplace of pizza has some ancient secrets hiding in plain sight. Naples, Italy: Inside a city bursting with energy The birthplace of pizza has some ancient secrets hiding in plain sight. - Cagliari vs Bologna: Italian Serie A stats & head-to-headFormation: 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 Attempt saved. Paul Mendy (Cagliari) right footed shot from the centre of the box is saved in the top left corner by Lukasz Skorupski (Bologna). Assisted by Michel Adopo with a cross. Yanis Massolin (Cagliari) wins…
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Ina Garten’s secret to creamy scrambled eggs is an unexpected Italian stapleCelebrity chef Alex Guarnaschelli prepares her nostalgic "'80s Date Night" pasta sauce while entertaining the audience at the New York City Wine & Food Festival with stories about her cooking career, kitchen mishaps and favorite… -
France see new round of protests; Riot police clash with demonstrators in ItalyCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition Weekend 6pm CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6pm CBS News Philadelphia 7:30pm What's in Season with Michael Marks CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm -
Lucas Perri astonishes Italian press with one-off moment in latest display away from LeedsLeeds United fans will continue to follow Lucas Perri's displays at Torino with intrigue, as the goalkeeper's turnaround continues. Perri is on loan with the Serie A side for the rest of the campaign, ahead of a possible £13.5million… -
US tourist in Italy falls 1,000 feet to death on mountain hikeA Florida woman died after plunging more than 300 meters (around 1,000 feet) while hiking in the Italian Dolomite mountains, according to police in the northern city of Trentino. Her death on Saturday was announced late this week after her…
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All growth & recession ›China’s government budget balance in 2026
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions