US government budget balance in 2026
-7.89%median
-9.5%-5.5%
Median -7.89%Middle half -8.84% – -7.64%
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China’s government budget balance in 2026
The odds
-8.12%median
-10%-6%
Median -8.12%Middle half -8.41% – -7.74%
How the odds have moved
Median: -8.11% on Oct 20, -8.12% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -9.5% of GDP | 96% | 92¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 92.00 | |
| Above -9.0% of GDP | 92% | 88¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | ||
| Above -8.5% of GDP | 83% | 81¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | ||
| Above -8.0% of GDP | 40% | 36¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 3.9K | |
| Above -7.5% of GDP | 12% | 10¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 4.0K | |
| Above -7.0% of GDP | 7% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 181 | |
| Above -6.5% of GDP | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 212 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan
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Typhoon Champi kills one and injures more than 500 in Taiwan as it heads to ChinaSuper typhoon weakening but large parts of Taiwan, including Taipei, still mostly closed and flights cancelled Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan on Saturday killing one person, injuring more than 500, and uprooting trees and severing power… -
Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese mainland marketI came here from Taiwan over 30 years ago to sell squid. We've all witnessed Xiamen's development. This time, I've brought high-quality seafood products from Taiwan, including giant grouper, ... Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese… -
Never to be undermined: Remembering Taiwan's return to ChinaOct 25 marks the Commemoration Day of Taiwan's Restoration. Eighty-one years ago, Taiwan returned to China after half a century of Japanese colonial rule. "The restoration of Taiwan was achieved ... Never to be undermined: Remembering… -
Western luxury falters in ChinaWestern luxury brands have lost roughly $280 billion in value this year as Chinese consumers spend more on domestic products but less overall. Chinese producers are increasingly competing with Western challengers not only on price but on… -
Massive waves thrash Taiwan as super typhoon Champi slams islandWild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries. Wild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries. -
Typhoon Champi roars towards Taiwan, Japan and China bringing heavy rain and windTaiwan is bracing for powerful Typhoon Champi, which is set to make landfall on Friday with gusts of up to 173 kph (107mph) and a 320km radius that will envelope the entire island Taiwanese authorities have urged people to stay away from… -
Tropical Storm Champi nears mainland China after battering Taiwan, JapanA powerful storm swept towards mainland China on Saturday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights. Typhoon Champi was… -
Obama: "We Welcome China's Rise"January 20, 2011 / 9:58 AM EST / CBS News China's rapid growth is often painted as a threat to American interests. But President Obama said today that the country's economic progress benefits the United States and opens the door to greater… - Tropical Storm Champi nears China after battering Taiwan, JapanA powerful storm swept towards China yesterday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of ... Choose a section, type your search topic…
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Russia Trains China’s Army for Taiwan While Beijing Fuels Moscow’s WarRussia is training Chinese soldiers in drone warfare and urban combat and has agreed to equip and train a battalion of Chinese paratroopers, while China supplies 90 percent of the sanctioned technology entering Russia. “For decades, Russia… -
Taiwan tightens semiconductor export controls on Huawei and SMIC amid US-China tech rivalryTaiwan has added Huawei and SMIC to its high-tech export blacklist, tightening controls amid US-China tech competition. The updated Strategic High-Tech Commodities Entity List, released by Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, now… -
Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around IslandChina is ramping up pressure on Taiwan, with Chinese military and Coast Guard vessels operating in waters around the island every day. What would you like to watch today? Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around Island What Pollsters…
Related markets
All growth & recession ›Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
-3.91%median
-5.5%-1.5%
Median -3.91%Middle half -4.28% – -3.64%
France’s government budget balance in 2026
-5.23%median
-7%-3%
Median -5.23%Middle half -5.46% – -5%
United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
-4.25%median
-6%-2%
Median -4.25%Middle half -4.79% – -3.72%
Italy’s government budget balance in 2026
-2.8%median
-5%-1%
Median -2.8%Middle half -3.15% – -2.53%
Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
-1.82%median
-4%0%
Median -1.82%Middle half -2.21% – -1.53%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions