Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/23-10/30)? (10/23 to 10/30)
63%chance▼ 17
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Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/16-10/23)? (10/16 to 10/23)
Settled YesA day before, traders gave it 96%.
The last odds before it closed
—chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 46% on Oct 20, 96% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ET26% → 83%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Yes | 99% | 13.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Generic Ballot, Democrats Up
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Democrats Maintain Lead on Generic BallotA new CBS News/YouGov poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 53% to 45%. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrats 53% Republicans 45% CBS News/YouGov poll · likely voters · ±3% A new CBS News/YouGov… -
Iowa’s cancer problem is scrambling the midtermsAs the debate season kicked off in Iowa’s heated gubernatorial race, one question seemed to animate and, in some ways, unify the candidates. “What are the immediate and specific steps that you would take to combat Iowa’s cancer crisis?”… -
US Democrats lead by 9 points as Senate map widens into SouthWashington, Oct 19 (IANS) With 16 days to go before the November 3 midterm elections, network polls released on the Sunday shows pointed to a difficult climate for President Donald Trump’s Republicans, with Democrats favoured for the House… -
Discovery of new fake polls puts a spotlight on trust in surveysSunday, Oct. 25, 2026 | 2 a.m. The pollster had been releasing surveys since June, shifting from one midterm battleground to another: Michigan. Maine. Kansas. On Tuesday night, after the polling website FiftyPlusOne contacted the pollster… -
Trump’s Approval Rating Quietly Shifts in America’s CitiesOct 24, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT President Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular among urban voters, but his net approval rating in Echelon Insights polling improved by 20 points between July and October. That movement could influence the… -
'Saddam Hussein Opened A Cheesecake Factory' Barack Obama Mocks Trump's Gold-Filled White House Renovations At Ohio RallyOhio [US], October 25: Former US President Barack Obama launched a sharp, satirical attack against Donald Trump’s ongoing renovation choices for the White House, saying Trump has "got the White House looking like former Iraq President… -
Obama rallies Detroit voters in final push for Michigan democratsKhalil Maycock, Local 4 News reporter, Detroit Michigan’s U.S. Senate race is drawing national attention, and this weekend both major candidates are getting high-profile help at the top of their tickets. In Detroit on Saturday night… -
Barack Obama jibes at Trump, says US President made White House look like 'Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory'Former US President Barack Obama criticized Donald Trump’s ongoing renovation choices for the White House, saying Trump has "got the White House looking like former Iraq President Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory.” Obama made the… -
WATCH: Ahead of Trump’s Rally in Perry, Sen. Ossoff Presses Collins on Ties to White Nationalism & Promotion of Political Violence Following Bombshell CNN ReportingAtlanta, Ga. — Ahead of Donald Trump’s rally tonight in Perry, Senator Jon Ossoff pressed GOP U.S. Senate nominee Mike Collins to answer for his continued ties to white nationalism after bombshell CNN reporting revealed that Collins has… -
Trump got White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory: Obama mocks US PresidentOhio : Former US President Barack Obama launched a sharp, satirical attack against Donald Trump’s ongoing renovation choices for White House, saying Trump has "got the White House looking like former Iraq President Saddam Hussein opened a… -
‘Most Potent Weapon’: Democrats Turn To Barack Obama For Final Election PushFormer US President Barack Obama is returning to the campaign trail as Democrats make their final push before Election Day, with the party relying on his popularity and fundraising reach in several closely contested races, according to a… -
Recommended StoriesWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions