Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%
- 25 bps increase5%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
How many government employees will Trump cut? (2026)
The odds
11%More than 100,000
50,000400,000
How the odds have moved
More than 100,000: 11% on Oct 20, 11% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than 100,000 | 11% | 8¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 7.4K | |
| More than 150,000 | 8% | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 7.6K | |
| More than 200,000 | 7% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 859 | |
| More than 250,000 | 7% | 6¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 2.3K | |
| More than 300,000 | 5% | 3¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 625 | |
| More than 350,000 | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 1.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
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President Trump, first lady Melania Trump cast early voting ballotsPresident Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump deliver remarks after casting their early voting ballots in West Palm Beach, Fla. President Trump, first lady Melania Trump cast early voting ballots President Donald Trump and first lady… -
President Trump and first lady Melania Trump vote early in West Palm BeachA hoarse-sounding President Trump and first lady Melania Trump voted early in West Palm Beach on Saturday – as Trump vowed to keep up the vigorous campaign schedule A hoarse-sounding President Trump cast his ballot alongside first lady… -
Trump reveals Audi's ambitious plans for a major expansion in the USPresident Donald Trump announced that Audi plans to invest $4.2 billion in a new manufacturing plant in Macon during a midterm rally speech on Saturday in Perry, Georgia. President Donald Trump announced a massive $4.2 billion investment… -
Tracking Trump: Trump rolls back Canada tariffs; Melania Trump’s peace deal; Hegseth bans insider trading; and moreBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Trump rolled back some… -
Trump announces Audi will build $4 billion U.S. factory in GeorgiaPresident Donald Trump announced Saturday that Audi plans to build a $4 billion assembly plant in Georgia to produce 200,000 SUVs annually, as he seeks to convince Americans to back Republicans in the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Trump, who… -
Small businesses struggling with inflation amid Trump tariffs ahead of midtermsWBZ News Weekend 6pm CBS News Chicago Saturday 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6pm KDKA News Saturday 6pm Your Stories From Your Community Reporters CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm -
Trump announces $4.2B Audi manufacturing investment in Georgia, touts 30,000 auto jobsPresident Donald Trump announced during a midterm rally speech Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, in Perry, Georgia, that Audi plans to invest $4.2 billion in a new manufacturing plant in Macon capable of producing 200,000 vehicles annually, while… -
2026 Midterm Elections: Trump, Obama Rally MichiganPresident Donald Trump is set to campaign in Michigan as Democrats deploy Barack Obama and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while a Justice Department lawsuit threatens to complicate the closely watched Alaska Senate race. President Donald Trump… -
Obama Mocks Trump’s White House RenovationsOct 24, 2026 at 07:24 PM EDT Former President Barack Obama took several shots at President Donald Trump's focus on White House renovations during a rally in Ohio on Saturday, joking that Trump "should be on HGTV" and ridiculing reports of… -
Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout?Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout? Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' -
Trump casts early in-person ballot | CNN PoliticsPresident Donald Trump cast an early ballot at a polling station in South Florida on Saturday. Despite the president's previous attacks on various voting methods such as mail-in voting and early voting, Trump has urged Republican voters to… -
Obama slams Trump on campaign trail in OhioCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6pm CBS News New York CBS News Philadelphia 7:30pm KDKA News at 7 CBS13 News Weekend 5pm CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 3
- No change20%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase2%▼ 1
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
73%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike73%▼ 2
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%
- Hike–Hike–Hike3%▼ 1
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Pause2%▲ 1
- Other1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
78%chance▲ 3
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
72%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)72%▲ 2
- 1 (25 bps)22%
- 3 (75 bps)5%▼ 2
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions