Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%
- 25 bps increase5%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Number of Fed rate changes before 2027
The odds
1.94median
0.5012.5
Median 1.94Middle half 1.59 – 2.29
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.00 on Oct 20, 1.94 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 | <1% | 53.0K | ||||
| Exactly 1 | 19% | 17¢ | 20¢ | $4.90 | 36.6K | |
| Exactly 2 | 71% | 66¢ | 75¢ | $1.34 | 41.0K | |
| Exactly 3 | 8% | 8¢ | 8¢ | $12.05 | 27.9K | |
| Exactly 4 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 2.3K | ||
| Exactly 5 | <1% | 0¢ | 2.3K | |||
| Exactly 6 | <1% | 0¢ | 1.5K | |||
| Exactly 7 | <1% | 0¢ | 1.4K | |||
| Exactly 8 | <1% | 0¢ | 1.4K | |||
| Exactly 9 | <1% | 0¢ | 1.2K | |||
| Exactly 10 | <1% | 0¢ | 1.4K | |||
| Exactly 11 | <1% | 0¢ | 1.3K | |||
| Exactly 12 | <1% | 0¢ | 1.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
Trump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve’s Lisa CookPresident Donald Trump on Oct. 9 announced a new committee to investigate whether a Federal Reserve governor made false statements. The committee will probe allegations that Lisa Cook, governor of the Federal Reserve, offered false… -
President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed, "Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation, They Cause Wealth," but Data From Federal Reserve Economists Show OtherwiseHowever, this doesn't mean that all of the president's policies are necessarily well-received on Wall Street. For example, Trumpflation (inflation specifically driven by Donald Trump's policies) is a genuine threat to the artificial… -
Ethereum Faces Downside Pressure as Arthur Hayes Sells Holdings Ahead of Make-or-Break Federal Reserve MeetingEthereum has slipped back toward the $2,350 to $2,380 range, dragged down in part by high-profile asset dumps from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, while Bitcoin tests vital support at $80,500. One of the primary catalysts driving social… -
Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekA key update on inflation and its impact on consumer confidence, economic growth and interest rate policy will fill a busy calendar this week along with more big earnings reports. They all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm… - September Jobs Data Set to Influence Federal Reserve’s Rate Strategy as Futures ClimbU.S. stock futures advanced during Friday’s pre-market session as market participants prepared for employment figures that may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance on borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures increased 0.4%, while…
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Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD SecuritiesTD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data. They see this pause increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in… -
Pine Bluff NAACP asks Federal Reserve for community meeting on Simmons Bank branch closingThe Pine Bluff Branch NAACP recently filed a written request with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asking the federal regulator to consult with community leaders and hold a public meeting before Simmons Bank closes its branch at 1704… -
The Federal Reserve At A Time Of UncertaintyEconomic uncertainty has increased on several fronts. That has made it even more difficult than before for the Fed to forecast the path of inflation and employment. Read more here... - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been consistently clear… -
The Federal Reserve's Latest October Inflation Forecast Has Arrived, and It's Terrible News for Wall StreetYear four of Wall Street's bull market didn't disappoint. The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.02%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.21%), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -2.60%) to… - Brent Crude Tops $100 as Markets Await Federal Reserve September Meeting MinutesUS stock futures showed little directional conviction Wednesday morning as market participants positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting readout. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped marginally into negative…
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Federal Reserve preview: A pause before a December hikeDespite hot inflation prints in September and the Fed having signalled that further action to tame inflation will likely be needed, markets and economists are united in expecting the central bank to leave interest rates on hold at the 28… -
Two Cheers For Warsh's "Quiet" Federal ReserveRealClearMarkets Two Cheers For Warsh's "Quiet" Federal Reserve
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 3
- No change20%▼ 1
- 50+ bps increase2%▼ 1
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
73%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike73%▼ 2
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%
- Hike–Hike–Hike3%▼ 1
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Pause2%▲ 1
- Other1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
78%chance▲ 3
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
72%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)72%▲ 2
- 1 (25 bps)22%
- 3 (75 bps)5%▼ 2
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions