Texas Governor winner? (2026)
66%Greg Abbott
- Greg Abbott66%▼ 3
- Gina Hinojosa34%▲ 3
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Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026?
The odds
86%Minnesota
- Minnesota86%▲ 1
- Michigan78%▲ 1
- Oregon73%▲ 1
- Arizona72%▲ 1
- Pennsylvania69%
- Wisconsin62%▲ 1
- Nevada56%▲ 1
- Vermont27%
How the odds have moved
Minnesota: 86% on Oct 20, 86% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 86% | ▲ 1 | 82¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 3.6K |
| Michigan | 78% | ▲ 1 | 74¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 1.1K |
| Oregon | 73% | ▲ 1 | 69¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 315 |
| Arizona | 72% | ▲ 1 | 69¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 3.9K |
| Pennsylvania | 69% | 65¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 1.9K | |
| Wisconsin | 62% | ▲ 1 | 58¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 146 |
| Nevada | 56% | ▲ 1 | 52¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 619 |
| Vermont | 27% | 24¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 38.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Democrats
Search ›-
Democrats are harassing ICE agents and civiliansWashington Examiner The mere act of enforcing immigration law has Democrats losing their minds, doing anything and everything to justify their hatred of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Kerman is a heavily Hispanic city in California’s… -
Trump votes early in West Palm Beach, criticizes DemocratsPresident Donald Trump cast his ballot for the midterm elections Saturday in West Palm Beach, accompanied by first lady Melania Trump. After voting, Trump criticized Democrats, accusing them of widespread corruption in several states and… -
Obama fires up Democrats at midterm rally in ClevelandFormer President Barack Obama returned to the campaign circuit Saturday during a midterm rally in Ohio for U.S. Senate candidate Sherrod Brown and gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton. Obama fires up Democrats at midterm rally in Cleveland… -
WATCH LIVE: Bernie Sanders rallies with Minnesota Democrats in DuluthSen. Bernie Sanders joins Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Attorney General Keith Ellison at a Duluth, Minnesota, get-out-the-vote campaign rally. WATCH LIVE: Bernie Sanders rallies with Minnesota Democrats in Duluth Sen. Bernie Sanders joins… -
WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama campaigns with Ohio Democrats in ClevelandFormer President Barack Obama speaks at a Cleveland campaign rally to support Ohio Democrats including former Senator Sherrod Brown. WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama campaigns with Ohio Democrats in Cleveland Former President Barack Obama speaks… -
Former President Barack Obama campaigns for Michigan Democrats at Detroit rallyOctober 24, 2026 / 8:27 PM EDT / CBS Detroit With a little over a week to go before the midterm elections, all eyes are on Michigan as a battleground state. Former President Barack Obama was in Detroit Saturday to drum up voter support for… -
Democrats, Republicans dealing with major midterm headwinds, WSJ associate editor saysWall Street Journal associate editor John Bussey breaks down what we can learn from early voting trends on ‘Fox Report.’ ... Democrats, Republicans dealing with major midterm headwinds, WSJ associate editor says Wall Street Journal… -
Independent candidates sense a moment in the West. Democrats are hoping they're rightPins and bumper stickers supporting Dan Osborn's candidacy for U.S. Senate sit on a campaign table on Sept. 3, 2026 at Pals Brewing Company in North Platte, Neb. Osborn, a 51-year-old Navy veteran, is running as an independent. Austin… -
Obama returning as campaign "closer-in-chief" for DemocratsFormer President Obama is hitting the campaign trail this weekend. Just how are Democrats banking on his star power to get them over the finish line? CNN's Arlette Saenz has the details. Obama returning as campaign ‘closer-in-chief’ for… -
Obama slams Trump’s ‘cruelty and corruption’ at Ohio rally for DemocratsFormer US president says Trump ‘chose to make a series of bad decisions’, highlighting the US-Israel war on Iran. Former United States President Barack Obama has criticised the “cruelty and corruption” during President Donald Trump’s… -
Democrats, voting-rights groups challenge Trump's bid to block Alaska Senate certificationDemocratic groups and voting-rights advocates are seeking to join a federal lawsuit to stop the Justice Department's effort to prevent Alaska from certifying its U.S. Senate election results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The… -
Obama hits campaign trail to stump for Democrats as midterm election nearsFormer President Barack Obama attacked the Trump administration over the Iran war and high consumer prices as he hit the campaign trail for Democrats ahead the nationwide midterm elections. On Saturday, the Democrat held a campaign rally…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions