Will the House pass additional defense funding?

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jul 1, 2027 · $443 traded · $264 at stake · prices read 12 h ago

The odds

41%Before Jul 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 202721%▲ 6
Before Jul 1, 202741%▲ 7

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 15% on Oct 19, 21% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Oct 1, 2026	1%				$100.00	3.5K
Before Jan 1, 2027	21%	▲ 6	17¢	24¢	$4.17	2.0K
Before Jul 1, 2027	41%	▲ 7	36¢	45¢	$2.22

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Department of Defense, House

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onLibrary of Congress

Trading closesJul 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$443 (5,515 contracts)

This week$443

At stake$264

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If legislation that provides supplemental appropriations to the Department of Defense beyond regular annual defense appropriations has passed the House after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.