Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton36%▼ 1
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Will Roy Cooper outperform the polls?
The odds
55%chance▼ 8
How the odds have moved
Yes: 44% on Oct 20, 55% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 10 PM ET63% → 55%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | ▼ 8 | 50¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 8.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Roy Cooper, North Carolina
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WATCH LIVE: Roy Cooper headlines Get Out the Vote concert in North CarolinaDemocratic Senate nominee Roy Cooper speaks to supporters and hosts a Get Out the Vote concert in Carrboro, North Carolina. WATCH LIVE: Roy Cooper headlines Get Out the Vote concert in North Carolina Democratic Senate nominee Roy Cooper… -
U.S Senate Race in North Carolina: Roy Cooper, Michael Whatley battle to replace Senator TillisDemocrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley are offering North Carolina voters different sets of priorities as they compete for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat. Cooper’s campaign is emphasizing plans to lower costs for families… -
Roy Cooper Solidly Ahead in North CarolinaA new Carolina Journal/Harper Polling poll in North Carolina finds Roy Cooper (D) leading Michael Whatley (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 39%. Try Political Wire free for 60 days Members get Talking Points analysis, Trending News, the… -
North Carolina Senate race: Roy Cooper leads Trump ally Michael Whatley as Democrats eye key seatWith Republicans defending their 53-47 Senate majority, North Carolina has emerged as a key battleground as former governor Roy Cooper seeks to unseat the Republican hold on the state’s open Senate seat As the United States heads towards… -
Unpacking early voting trends in North Carolina and FloridaCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Early voting trends… -
Republicans retreat from North Carolina as Trump admits Democrats are likely to win the Senate seatTrump has seemed to concede that Democrat Roy Cooper will win the pivotal race. Down-ballot Republicans are “extremely nervous” for what throwing in the towel means for them. BREAKING: Supreme Court says New Hampshire student IDs can’t be… -
Mail Ballot Rejections Tick Up Under GOP-Backed Rules in North CarolinaOct 22, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT North Carolina Governor Josh Stein is warning that strict new Republican-backed rules for voting by mail are contributing to an increase in rejected absentee ballots. Stein, a Democrat, said the new rules… -
‘I’m working like a dog’: Trump rallies in North Carolina against Roy Cooper amid midterm blitzPresident Donald Trump rallied in North Carolina on Tuesday for Senate candidate Michael Whatley, painting Democrat Roy Cooper as soft on crime and expressing hope for GOP chances in the midterms. Cooper, the state’s former governor, and… -
Tracking the early voting surge in battleground North CarolinaVoter turnout is already high in North Carolina, where a key Senate seat is on the ballot. CNN's Dianne Gallagher explains why the high numbers could mean trouble for Republicans. Discover more videos, including live streams and exclusive… -
The North Carolina Democrat Holding Out for IsraelNC Dept of Public Safety (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) Pro-Israel hawks like U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper are a rapidly shrinking group within the Democratic Party. One measure of this shift is that the once-influential Democratic Majority for… -
Trump rallies North Carolina Republicans in Greenville, backs Michael Whatley and blasts Roy Cooper ahead of midtermsPublished Oct. 21, 2026, 2:46 p.m. ET | Updated Oct. 21, 2026 GREENVILLE, N.C. — President Donald Trump delivered a nearly two-hour speech Tuesday night at Pitt-Greenville Airport, rallying North Carolina Republicans two weeks before the… -
Cooper Takes Aim At GOP Senate Wall In North CarolinaNorth Carolina’s U.S. Senate race could soon become one of the country’s most closely watched contests, with former Gov. Roy Cooper eyeing a seat Democrats have not won in the state since 2008. That long drought gives the race a built-in…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions