Norway rate decision in November (Nov 5, 2026 meeting)

Kalshi Economy › Central banks Closes Nov 5 · $1.6K traded · $1.2K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

86%Maintain current rate

Maintain current rate86%▼ 1
Hike 1-25bps12%
Cut more than 25bps1%
Cut 1-25bps1%
Hike more than 25bps1%

How the odds have moved

Maintain current rate: 85% on Oct 20, 86% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Maintain current rate	86%	▼ 1	81¢	90¢	$1.11	1.3K
Hike 1-25bps	12%		7¢	17¢	$5.88	2.9K
Cut more than 25bps	1%			1¢	$100.00	1.7K
Cut 1-25bps	1%			1¢	$100.00	789
Hike more than 25bps	1%			1¢	$100.00	7.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Norway

Search ›

Trump Says ‘Norway Sucks’ After Missing Out on Nobel Peace PrizeNewsweek · 30 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 06:08 PM EDT Oct 25, 2026 at 06:25 PM EDT President Donald Trump lashed out at Norway during a campaign rally in Michigan on Sunday, renewing his complaints about not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize and declaring that the…
Norwegian alliance calls for increased solar supportpv magazine Global · 12 h agoA coalition of 16 Norwegian companies have addressed a letter to the Norwegian parliament, known as the Storting, to support the country’s solar industry. Led by Norway’s renewable industry and employer association, Fornybar Norge, the…
‘Norway sucks’: Trump attacks country, says he doesn’t want Norwegians in US after Nobel snubMEAWW News · 16 h agoPORT HURON, MICHIGAN: President Donald Trump attacked Norway at a campaign rally in Michigan on Sunday, October 25, calling the country a “shithouse country” and saying that he did not want people from Norway coming to the United States…
Trump on Norway: ‘Shithouse country’POLITICO · 18 h ago“What about me?” wonders U.S. president in a new blast at Oslo over the Nobel Peace Prize. Donald Trump on Sunday night said Norway “sucks,” as he fulminated about being repeatedly overlooked for the Nobel Peace Prize. Despite starting a…
Norway Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026The Rio Times · 16 h agoNorway is a parliamentary monarchy. King Harald V formally appoints the government, but he has no political role, and the elected cabinet decides policy. This guide is part of The Rio Times series on European politics. See also our guides…
UK PM to Meet Norway's Støre on 7 July 2026Mirage News · 11 h agoThe Prime Minister hosted the Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre at the British Residence in Ankara today. Kicking off discussions, the leaders reflected on both the UK and Norway's success in the FIFA World Cup. The Prime Minister…
Trump now targets Norway, hurls abuses over Nobel Peace Prize snubHindustan Times · 10 h agoSpeaking at a political rally in Michigan prior to next week's midterm elections, Trump criticised Norway and declared that Norwegian immigrants were unwelcome in the US, according to a report by Reuters. However, there was no indication…
Trump calls Norway ‘shit house country’ in Nobel Peace Prize rowcyprus-mail.com · 13 h agoUS President Donald Trump escalated his invective against Norway, calling it a “shit house country” and saying Norwegian immigrants were not welcome in the United States because the Nobel committee, ... US President Donald Trump escalated…
Trump Rips Norway Over Nobel Prize BeefPolitical Wire · 22 h ago“President Donald Trump is still upset he didn’t get the Nobel Peace Prize, and he’s blaming Norway for it,” Mediaite reports. Said Trump: “I’m not in love with Norway. Frankly, Norway sucks.” He added: “Norway has become a shithouse…
‘Norway Sucks’: Trump Attacks Country Over Nobel Peace Prize SnubForbes · 17 h agoPresident Donald Trump attacked Norway during a campaign rally on Sunday and said he doesn’t want anyone from the country coming to the U.S., renewing his criticism of the Oslo-based Nobel Committee for not awarding him the Nobel Peace…
Trump unleashes on Norway after Nobel Peace Prize snubThe West Australian · 20 h agoDonald Trump has ramped up his criticism of Norway while addressing MAGA supporters at a political rally, complaining that he didn't win the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump in bizarre sweary rant against Norway after Nobel Peace Prize snubThe Independent · 13 h agoDonald Trump has hit out at Norway in another sweary rant after his Nobel Prize snub. The US President told a political rally in Port Huron, Michigan, on Sunday that immigrants from Norway are not welcome in the United States, days before…

Related markets

All central banks ›

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

64%No Change

No Change64%▲ 47
25 bps decrease25%▼ 57
25 bps increase3%▲ 3

2 more

50+ bps increase2%▲ 1
50+ bps decrease1%▲ 1

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

52%No Change

No Change52%▲ 28
25 bps decrease23%▼ 36
50+ bps increase11%▲ 10

2 more

50+ bps decrease3%▼ 14
25 bps increase2%

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

88%No change

No change88%▲ 14
25 bps decrease11%▼ 14
25 bps increase<1%

2 more

50+ bps decrease<1%
50+ bps increase<1%

Economy › Central banks

Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?

5median

Median 5Middle half 5 – 6

Economy › Central banks

Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?

81%Hike 25bps

Hike 25bps81%▲ 1
Maintains rate18%▲ 1
Hike >25bps1%

2 more

Cut >25bps<1%
Cut 25bps<1%

Economy › Central banks

Central Bank of Colombia decision in December

70%No change

No change70%▼ 5
25 bps increase18%▲ 7
50+ bps increase7%▼ 2

2 more

50+ bps decrease3%▼ 3
25 bps decrease2%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onNorges Bank, Trading Economics

Trading closesNov 5, 2026 3:59 AM ET

Traded$1.6K (13,768 contracts)

At stake$1.2K

In the news33 headlines today, 597 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Norges Bank takes the action of cut more than 25bps at its November monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions