50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel in effect? (Before Jan 2, 2027)

Kalshi Economy › Trade & tariffs Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $6 traded · prices read 5 h ago

The odds

24%chance

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	24%		23¢	24¢	$4.17	24.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: tariffs, tariff

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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US tariff revenue for 2026

$274.19median

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Median $274.19

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US trade deficit for 2026?

180.6median

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Median 180.6Middle half 170.8 – 190.3

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US trade deficit for 2032

50%Above $1.2 trillion

$400$1,300

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US trade deficit for 2031

$1,110median

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Median $1,110

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onThe New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$6 (24 contracts)

This week$6

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the United States has in effect tariffs of 50% on Canadian cars, trucks, automotive parts and steel after Issuance and before Jan 2, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.